Prime Day 2020 Forecast: Expected Winners, Losers, & Global Predictions

Hamilton Noel

October 12, 2020

After getting rainchecked in July due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, Amazon Prime Day is finally here! The two-day event, which starts on Tuesday October 13th, is looking like it may be the biggest sales event in Amazon’s history,

Here’s what we know about this year’s Prime Day and what we’re predicting will be the shopping event’s biggest hits and biggest flops.

Prime Day 2020 vs. Prime Day 2019

Amazon’s fifth annual Prime Day will run from October 13th to October 14th (Tuesday and Wednesday) and will be held in 19 countries with a focus on supporting small businesses in many markets. Early deals have already gone live ahead of the event. For example, members in the USA and UK received an offer of £10 or $10 credit to spend on Prime Day as an early treat.

This year’s Prime Day event has big footsteps to follow. Last year, over 100 million paid Prime members participated in Prime Day, and over 175 million products were sold in 48 hours, making Prime Day a larger shopping event for Amazon than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. Tony Morales, Director of Advertising at Pattern, said Amazon is prepping itself for an event of similar scale this year.

“Amazon’s warehouses are packed to the gills,” Morales said. “Amazon is putting inventory restrictions on a number of sellers. They are positioning themselves to only hold the best, most desirable inventory, and happen to have the most of that.”

Morales anticipates this year’s Prime Day will be the biggest event Amazon’s ever had.

“The fact that Amazon is able to target their inventory to make sure that they’re only keeping in stock the things that they know are going to sell the best means that they’re going to have record sales, record profitability,” Morales said.

How this year’s Prime Day is different

There are two main factors that make this year’s Prime Day different but also may help it hit record numbers. The first is that it’s happening at a time of accelerated demand in the ecommerce space, demand that you’ll recall caught Amazon off guard back in April and May and led to massive delays in shipping and product shortages.

“Amazon was expecting growth, but was not expecting growth at the pace that we have it because of all of the retail shutdowns,” Morales said.

More consumers than ever are purchasing products online and from the comforts of home due to the pandemic. They’re also spending more money and expanding the item set that they would regularly buy online, purchasing groceries and merchandise in the same basket, for example. This bodes really well for Prime Day sales and for prepared brands taking advantage of the amount of people who will be shopping online to push their own sales during the two-day event.

The second factor that gives Amazon a unique advantage over its competitors in all markets this year is the fact that the event has been pushed so close to Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales events. They’re six weeks apart.

According to Morales, Prime Day has had consistent but varying degrees of success for Amazon—in 2015, it was the biggest event Amazon had ever had, but in 2016, it was outpaced by Black Friday. Morales predicts that because these two events are so close this year, many consumers may begin their holiday shopping during Prime Day rather than waiting until next month.

“Because they’re close, we may see a more even matchup or maybe Black Friday doesn’t do as well as Prime Day, but we’ll know when we get there,” Morales said. “Given that these things are so close together, my guess is we’re going to have amplified traffic from mid-October through Christmas.”

Amazon is offering added incentive for consumers to do their holiday shopping during Prime Day with its extended returns window. Typically, Amazon’s holiday returns period runs from November 1st until after Christmas to give customers time to return products bought as gifts. This year, that returns period began on October 1st, making the idea of snagging a great deal on an early Christmas present extra appealing to shoppers.

Torsten Schaefer, Pattern’s new Country Manager for Germany, says that while competing retailers and marketplaces may try to match Prime offers, they will have a limited opportunity unless they are prepared to go out of stock on products just before peak. That puts Amazon in a unique position to pull big numbers.

Expected Prime Day winners

The products expected to do especially well this Prime Day are big ticket items that customers are saving up for and waiting for a deal on. Apple watches, for example, are anticipated to be one of the biggest winners on Prime Day. TVs, iPads, Alexas, and Kindles will also do really well.

The consumer electronics, home and kitchen, and computer categories are expected to make the biggest wins on the platform, and when it comes to brands, Amazon’s private label brands, (like AmazonBasics), Apple, Samsung, and Under Armour are also anticipated to do really well.

Morales said he thinks PPE is another category that, due to the unique circumstances of COVID-19, will do really well this Prime Day, as consumers are still stocking up on masks and protective products during lockdown.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if people were putting wipes and hand sanitizers as stocking stuffers this year,” Morales said.

Projected losers

The categories expected to do the worst this Prime Day are movies and TV, with shows and movies doing especially poorly. Apps & games and automotive products are also showing low numbers.

Consumers have less discretionary and luxury income to work with due to the effects of the pandemic, and it’s expected that luxury goods will continue to hit lower numbers during Prime Day. Consumer search behavior has experienced major changes since COVID; read more on that here.

Examples of other subcategories that aren’t expected to do well this Prime Day are:

  • Bluetooth earphones
  • Chargers
  • Water bottles
  • Phone cases
  • Leftover summer clothing inventory

International predictions for Prime Day 2020

Prime Day 2020 is expected to do really well on a global scale. Schaefer, like Morales, believes Prime Day will be a success this year because customers have been waiting with anticipation for its announcement.

"Extra spending is possible as there have not been many deal events, and sales in offline channels are limited due to COVID-19. People have been told that Prime Day would not be cancelled, and there is also a three percentage point reduction in VAT until the end of the year in Germany," he said.

Pattern's General Manager for Australia, Merline McGregor, likewise believes that, although it’s been announced on such short notice, Amazon Prime Day 2020 is a welcome event for Australia's retail calendar: "With the state of Victoria still in lockdown, retailers and brands are seeking alternative channels to market."

Prime Day is happening right before Australia’s second Click Frenzy sales event of the year (the first was held in May), and it’s expected to sate pent up consumer demand for a sales holiday in that market as well.

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Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 27th September 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 27th September 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon drives renewable energy push with 71 new projects Amazon is planning to add 2.7 gigawatts of clean energy capacity through a couple of new projects as the company attempts to use 100% renewable energy by 2025. The ecommerce business will soon have a total of 329 renewable energy projects, generating 50,000 gigawatt hours of clean energy, which is equivalent to powering 4.6 million US homes every year. [Read more on Reuters]( Amazon launches Prime Early Access Sale Amazon is launching a new 2-day shopping event for its Prime members only, beginning on the 11th of October. Across 15 countries, Prime customers will have access to the shopping event, with thousands of deals on offer globall, ranging from fashion to electronics to essentials. The event has the purpose of giving Prime users the chance to spread the cost of items over the winter months, 6 weeks ahead of Black Friday. [Read more on Charged Retail]( --- Other Marketplace News --- Shopify unveils new localisation tool Shopify is launching a new localisation tool, called Translate & Adapt, which works with Shopify Markets to offer localisation for sellers who are looking to expand into new markets. The tool translates a user’s online store into different languages, including product pages and information pages. Merchants are also able to create different shipping terms for each market using the new tool, which allows international expansion and offers a more localised consumer experience, unveiling new potential. [Read more on Ecommerce News]( Etsy is set to invest hundreds of millions into its marketing platform Etsy CEO claims that the company is on route to spend more than $570 million USD on marketing this year. Even during a time of macroeconomic pressure, inflation and rising interest rates, the company is preparing itself and its sellers for the upcoming holiday season and is focused on retaining interest from buyers. [Read more on Yahoo News]( --- Other Ecommerce News --- Meta looks to cut costs by 10% in the coming months Meta employees are facing job redundancies as the company plans to cut its costs by 10% over the next few months. Meta reported a 22% YoY increase in costs and expenses, totalling over $20 billion USD. The cuts are expected to come in the form of job redundancies as a result of department reorganisations rather than formal layoffs. [Read more on Charged Retail]( DHL teams up with Quadient to offer smart locker deliveries in the UK DHL and tech company, Quadient, have partnered to offer smart lockers parcel pick-up throughout the UK. The new contactless, secure locker stations will give recipients more choice and flexibility to receive their parcels at a time and location best suited to them. The partnership plans to install 500 locker stations across the country by the end of 2022. [Read more on Charged Retail]( The online fashion market is set to be worth nearly $170 billion USD in 2025 The European online fashion retail market is set to grow 50% by 2025, with an online turnover of $170 billion USD, which is 33% of the retail branch’s total. Cross-border marketplaces prove to be the largest drivers of this growth, with online websites and apps like Vinted largely pushing the market’s online growth. Zalando recently became the largest cross-border fashion retailer/marketplace, responsible for 11.7% of the online market’s share. [Read more on Ecommerce News](

How an Amazon SEO Agency Should Be Serving Your Brand

How an Amazon SEO Agency Should Be Serving Your Brand

If you’re in the global ecommerce space, you are most likely aware of Amazon, and probably selling your products on the marketplace. With over $470 billion in sales in 2021 alone, Amazon stands as the third largest company in the world based on revenue. The ecommerce giant is a household name in the U.S. and working hard to grow its market share across five continents worldwide.

Having your products available on Amazon and being competitive there, though, are definitely two different things. If you want to really succeed on Amazon, you’ll need specialized insight into how Amazon works and how to make it work for you. So, for many brands, it’s a great idea to work with an Amazon Search Engine Optimization (SEO) agency.

At Pattern, Amazon SEO optimization service is one of our key competencies. We understand that technology, data-driven insights and expertise  are the most important tools brands can leverage to win top listing spots on digital marketplaces. With expert teams and years of experience, we help brands conquer the Profitability Death Spiral as they compete with other products and sellers online. We offer Amazon SEO agency services as a core solution to brands that need more resources to get ahead. 

What is an Amazon SEO Agency?

An Amazon SEO agency serves brands by improving their products’ rank and listing performance on Amazon. They make strategic decisions about ad spending and placement that lead to higher traffic, conversions, and revenue for ecommerce brands.

A great Amazon SEO Agency partner will:

Prioritize Your Success

Unfortunately, many Amazon SEO agencies profit in unfair ways from your brands’ perceived success based on the ROAS numbers they provide. This is done through including branded search terms in ROAS reports, which naturally skew listing performance

Let’s say, for instance, your brand is called “Annie’s” and you sell lollipops. Your brand has a very high likelihood of winning the top listing spots on Amazon for lollipop search terms that are paired with “Annie’s,” your brand name. So, SEO agencies will spend your ad money on those terms and report a very high ROAS. 

To avoid scenarios like these, it’s best to look for an agency that either calculates their profits on metrics other than your ROAS scores or weighs branded search terms differently in the performance metrics reports. Regardless of your Amazon SEO agency’s cost structure, you should align onbranded search terms before committing to a scope of work.

Provide Detailed Competitive Insight

A great indicator of a high-quality Amazon SEO agency is the level of insight they can provide into your competitors’ listing positioning and how it compares to yours. Data fanaticism is so important at Pattern that we’ve developed proprietary technology to display this exact information with precise detail for every brand we work with. In fact, you can find our free version here to see how you compare to some of your top competitors based on ASIN.

It’s certainly possible to improve your Amazon search performance with blind spending strategies. But a truly great solution will help you to know where your dollars are at their most powerful and competitive.

Reduce Your Ad Spend Over Time

Amazon’s A10 algorithm prioritizes customer satisfaction—it wants to show consumers the best products that align with their search intent to improve conversions and sales. So, the best way to gain momentum on Amazon is to work on incremental wins. 

Improving your performance on more obscure search terms that align with your customers’ search intent is a great way to increase ROAS for the long term. A10 will reward your success with better rankings on higher-volume search terms and the virtuous cycle can help you conquer your most-coveted listing spots. And the best part? This process of gaining momentum, if done right, will naturally decrease your ad spend over time as Amazon recognizes your value and works with you to keep your products at the top of consumers’ search results.

Amazon SEO Optimization and More

As an Amazon SEO specialist, Pattern knows how to help your brand win better success for long-term profitability on Amazon. With our data-driven tools and brilliant teams of ecommerce experts, we help brands with listing management, content optimization, Amazon ad strategies, and more.

Contact us to learn more about our SEO optimization services.

Global Ecommerce: Weekly News (20th September 2022)

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 20th September 2022

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