Pattern’s Predictions for Q4 Sales Peak 2021

Akta Bavalia

October 11, 2021

The fourth quarter is the most lucrative time of the year for most retailers and brands – both online and offline – with a multitude of shopping festivals, deals and promotions leading up to the end of the year. We've asked our ecommerce and marketplace experts around the world for their predictions for Q4 peak sales.

Last year peak sales patterns and trends were quite disrupted in various markets due to most stores being closed, and whilst sales over peak this year may not beat 2020 figures in all markets, we still expect to see a huge uplift in numbers, both in-store and online, with big shopping festivals such as Black Friday (White Friday in the Middle East) and Cyber Monday, as well as Singles’ Day in China being a huge driver.

For brands preparing their trading strategy, Pattern’s General Manager, Germany Torsten Schafer, suggested that brands steer away from using last year’s trading figures as a benchmark for predicting demand this holiday season.

What will the biggest sales peak in 2021?

We asked Pattern’s senior leadership team what their predictions for Q4 sales peak 2021 were, and specifically for the biggest day in terms of revenue. For the Middle East, USA and Australia, Black Friday and Cyber Weekend is expected to see the largest peak in sales, especially online, whilst in China and Europe, Singles’ Day, and December respectively, will see the largest peak.

Pattern’s General Manager for Australia Merline McGregor commented: “We’ve seen an increase in online shoppers in the past 12 months thanks to COVID-19 and store closures - 59% of sessions being new. In addition to this, August 2021 saw our biggest tracked revenue month in our Benchmark Report’s history, with revenue exceeding November 2020 (the previous record holder) by 21%. This was primarily due to New South Wales and Victoria being in lockdown. If this trend continues, we’ll likely continue to see some record-breaking months ahead.”

She added: “Despite most physical retail likely to be back open by this point, I’d assume there will continue to be some hesitation around crowded shopping centres and so consumers will continue to shop online.”

Pattern's USA Director of Marketplaces George Hatch agreed that COVID variants will limit brick-and-mortar sales and some retailers will shift to being closed over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as Walmart is planning to be. However, Black Friday will still likely be the highest revenue day for ecommerce.

George Hatch also predicted that “this holiday season we expect to see deals spread out rather than crammed into a single day. Black Friday and Cyber Monday will surely see the lion's share of discounts and promotions, but shoppers can expect to see deals throughout the Thanksgiving weekend and well into December, and likewise retailers should anticipate a big lift over Turkey 5 – the 5 days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Weekend. We saw this trend in 2020 as the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend saw the highest YoY growth at 113%.”

Meanwhile, General Manager MENA David Quaife predicted the White/Black Friday weekend will also see the most sales in the UAE and Saudi Arabia: “White Friday will be, and has always been, the biggest online selling period. Typically, online retailers should expect to see 3.5x increase in sales in November vs October - this may vary between pureplay and omnichannel retailers.” In the past year or two, the Middle Eastern ecommerce market has experienced sharp growth which is why he expects to see a very strong performance for the big online players this year.

Additionally, the delayed Expo 2020 Dubai will commence in October 2021 and run through to end of March 2022. The footfall to this event will provide a major boost to retail sectors with many visitors expected from outside countries such as Europe and the USA. David stated it would be interesting to see if any of these customers place online orders with Amazon.ae during their stay.

In Latin America, though Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still large festivals, Buen Fin which takes place earlier in November, usually kick starts the shopping season in Mexico. George Hatch advised: “Brands need to be ready by the time Buen Fin rolls around to not miss out on capturing the entirety of Mexico's shopping season. Last year, the event raked in US$11.9 billion in total revenue for both brick-and-mortar and ecommerce.”

In Europe, Torsten predicted: “This year, the biggest days for online sales could be as late as Sunday 19th and Monday 20th December, because of when Christmas falls.” Furthermore, he stated “last year was an exceptionally strong Q4 online because of store closures, and so retailers may not achieve year-on-year sales increases online. However, they should see growth on their 2019 holiday sales – maybe as much as 25% to 50% growth on their sales two years ago if they are running an established online shop and if they have acquired new customers in 2020 who have become more confident buying online.”

In China, Singles’ Day is the biggest 24-hour online shopping festival in the world and is expected to continue being so. Pattern’s General Manager Asia, Arthur Cheung predicted: “Tmall will release the best offers seen throughout the year. However, the sales volume will be so large that it will heavily impact the speed of the fulfilment. It could take a month for an order to arrive to the customer, which is not very common in China where delivery times are usually within 2-3 days.”

And it’s not just in China where we expect to see issues with delays in fulfilment processes. Pattern’s leadership team in Europe, the USA and China expect that retailers and brands will focus their efforts on trying to spread out sales peaks and promotions so their warehouses and delivery infrastructure can cope.

The impact on delivery delays, fulfilment processes and logistics

In Europe, typically Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales have been spread out over the week leading up to the shopping event and the whole week of Cyber Monday - a trend that Torsten predicted will continue. He also added: “This is a combination of retailers trying to attract spend before their competitors and retailers spreading out the peak so that their fulfilment operations can cope with the spike in demand. Last year, Amazon ran Prime Day in mid-October, but it has already taken place this year, so discounting and promotions are likely to be more focused on the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, with retailers trying to maintain full price sales prior to that.”

Whilst in Europe and the Middle East, delivery delays are not expected to be such an issue, there could be real issues in other regions. In the USA, Amazon has been working to improve its logistics capabilities by relying less on UPS and USPS, but George still anticipates that many products will not arrive in time for Christmas if they are bought after early to mid-December.

Similarly in Australia, it has already been advised that consumers can expect lengthy delivery delays leading up to Christmas. Therefore, Merline predicted that the majority of consumers will aim to get most of their Christmas shopping completed by Cyber Weekend, hence why she believes Black Friday will be the strongest day on the 2021 trading calendar.

How retailers can cope with excess stock issues

Lastly, in Australia and the UAE, it is expected that retailers will have lots of stock to discount that they haven’t been able to sell while stores were closed. They will likely try and discount online to get rid of product over the Black/White Friday and Cyber Monday weekend.

David expects to see a very big push from these businesses to clear a lot of that aged inventory in the month of November with deep discounts, which may then result in a big swing to online channels. Merline also mentioned that some retailers who are eager to clear stock will offer significant promotions. However, others in Australia have consistently faced stock shortages and logistics delays during 2021 and will not want to discount stock so close to the Christmas period.

If you are interested in expanding onto international marketplaces in 2022, download our five-step guide which can help determine whether your brand is ready to go international. Contact hello@pattern.com to learn how we can help to accelerate your growth on marketplaces around the world.

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Aug 4, 2022

How Disjointed Sellers Take Away Brand Control on Ecommerce Marketplaces

A top issue we see with brands struggling on ecommerce marketplaces is a loss of brand control due to disjointed sellers—those that aren't following your brand policies and guidelines when selling your products online. Disjointed sellers can be gray market, unauthorized, and rogue sellers, as well as 3P and other sellers that are noncompliant with your branding, pricing, and other forms of representation online.

It can be very easy for brands to lose control of their ecommerce strategy when they can’t get a handle on disjointed sellers. Typically, these brands are either stuck in a game of whack-a-mole or just ignoring the warning signs of bigger issues and hoping for the best. But, when disjointed selling isn't handled right, the consequences can be devastating to profitability. A loss of brand control doesn’t happen overnight, and the factors that contribute to it are long-standing. 

Erode Consumer Trust

Before the advent of ecommerce, brands favored a wide distribution. It was the easiest way to get products to as many distributors as possible. But wide distribution, when left unchecked, leads to leaky distribution—allowing your excess products to end up in the hands of unwanted sellers.

So brands that continue to operate with a wide distribution strategy are losing brand control and are damaging their brand equity and product performance. Why? You’re unable to monitor your products’ pricing, performance, or quality. You can’t dictate how you’re represented by each seller, creating an inconsistent and false representation of your brand to your new and existing consumers. These issues often lead to poor reviews and erode opportunities to build trust with future customers.

Wear Away Brand Equity

In today’s ecommerce landscape, marketplaces and digital platforms connect people and sellers to make online shopping simple and seamless. They also provide customers complete price transparency. Google, for instance, allows consumers to access any of your products on virtually every ecommerce channel and retail location and posts them side-by-side for you to comparison shop.

Now, everyone from your D2C distributors to large marketplace sellers, legitimate 3P sellers, and rogue and unauthorized sellers are on a level playing field—they’re all presented to the searching consumer, and that consumer has the purchase power.

Disjointed sellers have just as much power and authority to represent your brand as you do, without the same quality, pricing strategy, and customer focus as you.

Cause Competition and Price Matching Issues 

In most shopping scenarios, consumers will choose to purchase a product from whichever seller offers the lowest price. Marketplaces like Amazon and Walmart know this, and optimize their product selection based on all retail offers to serve consumers the lowest price for the same item.

This means that as one seller drops the price of your product, the next will follow, and then the next, etc. Everyone gains access to the product at or below MSRP. This opens the door for unauthorized sellers to purchase inventory during promotions or at discounted prices and then turn around and sell the same product slightly below competing sellers’ prices—for profit.  

As customers search for your product, they notice the cheaper price and purchase from the unauthorized seller, rather than paying the price you’ve established with your retail teams. Simultaneously, as Amazon monitors their product listing against other available channels, they notice they don’t have the lowest price. So Amazon, and other marketplaces, in service of the consumer, drop their price to match the lower price offered by an unauthorized seller. To stay competitive, your other channels follow suit. The cycle, also know as the profitability death spiral, continues to drive down the price of your product, grinding away your margins and profitability.

This doesn’t sound like much of a problem if your brand isn’t actively selling on ecommerce marketplaces, right? Unfortunately, it causes big issues for your brick-and-mortar sales, too. Large retail chains like Best Buy and Macy’s noticed this potential loss of sales from ecommerce and needed to defend and protect their profit. Retailers started telling brands that, in order to keep their products in-store (which accounts for 80% of most brands’ sales) they would need to lower their prices to match online prices. Which led to the concept of price matching. If a customer could prove the price of a product was lower somewhere else, Best Buy would match the lower price and charge the brand for the difference.

As other brick-and-mortar retailers jumped on the trend, brands started to see large losses in their margins.

Gain Ecommerce Control with Pattern

The danger that disjointed sellers pose to brands is enormous—without a way to control all of a brand’s distribution points on ecommerce, your brand spins farther and farther down the profitability death spiral. Using custom technology and data-driven insights, Pattern can identify disjointed and unauthorized sellers for your brand and develop a custom strategy tailored to your specific needs to address these big issues as soon as possible. Then, Pattern partners with the econtrol law firm, VORYs, to enforce take downs and save brands who find themselves caught on any stage of the death spiral.

With the right resources and expert help, we’ve helped hundreds of brands to regain their footing and control on ecommerce, win the buy box, and grow their sales. 

Contact us today to regain your brand control.

Aug 2, 2022

How Poor Product Listings Damage Your Brand on Amazon

Since most brands only sell about 20% of their products online, it’s common for executives to turn a blind eye to their poor ecommerce performance—issues there are probably a small problem, right? But if you can pinpoint the lackluster ecommerce profitability to poorly-performing listings, then you can take care of issues now that would snowball to greater losses as your brand grows.

As an expert in ecommerce and the world’s foremost ecommerce accelerator, Pattern has unparalleled expertise in managing brands across global marketplaces. Partnering with Pattern gives you access to data, technology, and top teams across multiple disciplines that help you prioritize great product listings in your overall ecommerce strategy and provides the resources to improve underperforming listings. 

We've highlighted three ways poor listings impact your Amazon marketplace performance.

Negatively Impacts Your Discoverability

If your listings aren’t optimized for SEO and strategic ad placement, they will not be found by customers. And if your products aren’t found, your traffic, conversions, and overall profitability drop significantly. Pattern’s Amazon data and trends suggest that only the top four products listed in an Amazon search result drive more engagement with a brand's listing. So, optimizing your products for organic discoverability needs to be a priority for your ecommerce efforts.

Typically brands find it tempting to underestimate the power of SEO and paid ads, but the stakes are too high to ignore their impact for long. To put it into perspective, Amazon’s ads are clicked 42% more often than Google ads. And, the data shows when people search for products, 74% of them search Amazon first. 

Another reason Amazon search is so valuable is because of where your consumers are in their buying journey. Ads on social media and Google can be valuable, but on Amazon, you have the advantage of knowing your audience’s search intent. Appearing in front of consumers wanting and ready to buy a product that aligns with their search query is a huge opportunity that you can’t miss.

So, you need to be putting the right resources into creating and testing your listing titles, product descriptions, search filters, and backend search terms. (We’ve listed some of the best practices for brands here.) As you find what works, Amazon’s algorithm will be able to better identify your products and serve them in front of consumers ready to buy.

Pattern’s expert SEO teams know the best practices and how to optimize your product listings for the right audiences to improve your rankings for better traffic and conversion wherever you sell your products online.

Misrepresents Your Brand

It’s hard to overestimate the importance of brand affinity on ecommerce marketplaces. One of the key reasons you should be establishing a strong brand presence is to build a consumer base of loyal, repeat customers. 

Repeat purchases from repeat customers are a true sign of a healthy, thriving brand. And when you can establish a great relationship and deep trust with the people you’re selling to, you’ll naturally build positive momentum with their reviews and word of mouth endorsements. In short, it’s easier to reduce buying friction, the cost of conversion, and the cost of acquisition with people who already have an enthusiastic opinion of your products, leading to more conversions and overall success for your brand.

Clearly, it’s valuable to find your brand advocates, but how do your listings help you do that? The first is by claiming the buy box

Many brands struggle with disjointed sellers—3P sellers who have acquired your products, (for example—after buying them on deep discount) and now “pose” as your brand to sell those products to consumers. They often sell your products below their MAP price in order to claim the buy box, attracting more traffic and conversions.

As those customers are drawn to those listings instead of yours, they experience a disconnect in what they normally associate with your brand—often, the copy, media, and even the grammar are ignored for profitability for unauthorized sellers. They often focus on keyword stuffing and quick turnaround to capture traffic and end up poorly representing your brand.

Issues like losing the buy box can hurt your brand long-term, especially if 3P sellers are selling returned, damaged, or fake products in your name. When you have a true understanding of how to optimize your product listings to outperform your competition, you can win the buy box and reclaim your brand presence for your repeat and future customers to ensure better long-term success.

Pattern knows the dangers of disjointed sellers leading to poor brand representation. We have both legal partnerships and listing optimization strategies at our disposal that are proven to help you get ahead of disingenuous sellers and reclaim your brand’s presence wherever you sell online.

Lowers Your Conversion Rates

In order to achieve long-term profitability and growth on ecommerce marketplaces, it’s important to keep your conversion rates as high as possible. Pattern’s experts have found that a low conversion rate signals to Amazon your products aren’t worth showing to customers, significantly lowering your sales potential. But a great conversion rate helps improve your organic rankings and raises your ROI for paid ads—making it easier and less expensive to sell your products in the long run.

So, how do listings affect your conversion rates? Consumers searching for products on Amazon are more likely to purchase from a brand they trust. And without being able to physically sample your product, they have a short window with limited information to decide whether or not they’ll purchase from you. 

We know from extensive data analysis and research there are a few key components of your listing that help in building trust with your consumers. One of those components is the quality of your images.

If your images are blurry or you only post 1 or 2, customers will have a hard time understanding what your product is and its potential value to them. So, they’ll keep searching instead of purchasing your product. Things like the images’ lighting, background, the quality of your equipment, and your editing process shouldn’t be left up to chance. 

Partnering with an ecommerce product photography expert is a way to make sure you get the best photography for your products, and your images are optimized for both your brand and your marketplace.

Pattern Boosts Your Product Listing Performance 

When it comes to optimizing your ecommerce strategy, Pattern has all of the resources you need to achieve long-term profitability. Not only do we have the data and technology to analyze a brand's current performance and opportunity on marketplaces, Pattern has all of the necessary teams to optimize your success from end to end. As the world’s top ecommerce accelerator, Pattern knows the key drivers for boosting listings, conversions, and profitability for brands.

Ready to improve your product listings? Contact us.

Aug 2, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 2nd August 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon sees its share price rise 10% and beats revenue expectations Amazon has exceeded revenue expectations, mainly due to its Amazon Web Services cloud business and its fast-growing advertising arm. Investors who have been concerned about the effects of sharp macroeconomic effects have been reassured as the ecommerce giant has overperformed and seen growth. [Read more on the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/911f7a71-72ed-4c26-8a07-932832ffff4d) Amazon set to launch localised versions of its Prime Video in Southeast Asia Amazon is launching local versions of Prime Video across three countries in Southeast Asia, with new investments in local content. The service will launch in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, where users will be offered a 7 day free trial along with other discounted introductory offers. Prior to this launch, consumers in these countries had been able to shop cross-border on the platform but Prime Video has not been available until now. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/07/26/amazon-prime-still-worth-it/) Amazon closes down its cloud storage platform, Amazon Drive By the end of 2023 Amazon Prime members will be losing a big feature, Amazon Drive, as the company turns its attention towards its Amazon Photos service. The tech giant wants to focus on photo and video storage features, allowing Prime members to safely back up, share and organise photos & videos with Amazon Photos, which is currently available on iOS, Android and desktop devices. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/01/amazon-prime-members-are-set-to-lose-a-big-feature/) --- Other Marketplace News --- Shopify lays of 10% of its workforce Shopify has cut 10% of its workforce as it struggles with a slowdown in ecommerce growth. The company was relying on a permanent jump in online purchases in the retail space, and are now realising that incorrect assumptions were made, which now need adjustment accordingly. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/07/27/shopify-cuts-10-workforce/) Alibaba Group goes after primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange By the end of 2022, Alibaba will become dual-primary, listed on both the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) and HKSE (Hong Kong Stock Exchange). Being listed in two major financial centres will allow the company to expand its openness and diversity, broaden its investor base, and will help to pave the way for its globalisation strategy. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/07/26/alibaba-group-pursues-primary-listing-on-the-hong-kong-stock-exchange/) Shopee and P&G launch virtual home shopping experience As part of Procter & Gamble’s Regional Super Brand Day on Shopee, a new exclusive 360 degree virtual home shopping experience feature has been launched, with P&G brands of household essentials on offer, categorised according to rooms. Accessible through P&G’s official store on Shopee’s website and app, the feature includes multi-format touch points like videos, games, and localised content to make online home shopping convenient and engaging. [Read more on Business Mirror](https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/07/26/pg-and-shopee-launch-a-new-exclusive-360-virtual-home-shopping-experience/) The Hut Group ends investment deal with Japan’s Softbank UK ecommerce company, THG, has recently put an end to an investment agreement with Softbank due to “global macroeconomic conditions”. The deal was made to help fund the expansion of THG’s technology platform before going public in London. The company saw its share price fall after the announcement and its valuation remains well below its flotation price despite recent bidding wars. [Read more on The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/26/uk-thg-ends-investment-deal-softbank-lookfantastic-zavvi) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Third-party online marketplaces sales to account for 59% of all global ecommerce by 2027 By 2027, third-party sales through marketplaces will be the largest and fastest-growing retail channel globally, accounting for two thirds of all online sales. Alibaba will continue to hold its place as the global leader in retail sales, growing total net GMV sales in 2027 to $1.5trn, and Amazon in second place with $1.2trn. The number of third-party marketplaces operating globally has increased by over 500% since 2007, and is expected to see further growth. [Read more on Internet Retailing](https://internetretailing.net/marketplaces/third-party-marketplace-sales-to-account-for-59-of-all-global-ecommerce-by-2027/)