Pattern’s Predictions for Q4 Ecommerce Sales Around the World

Akta Bavalia

October 26, 2021

The fourth quarter is the most lucrative time of the year for most retailers and brands–both online and offline–with a multitude of shopping festivals, deals, and promotions leading up to the end of the year. We've asked our ecommerce and marketplace experts around the world for their predictions for peak Q4 sales.

Last year peak sales patterns and trends were disrupted in various markets due to most stores being closed due to the pandemic, and while peak sales this year may not beat 2020 figures in all markets, we still expect to see a huge lift in numbers, both in-store and online, with big shopping holidays like Black Friday (White Friday in the Middle East) and Cyber Monday, as well as Singles’ Day in China being a huge driver.

For brands preparing their strategy, Pattern’s General Manager, Germany Torsten Schafer, suggested that brands steer away from using last year’s trading figures as a benchmark for predicting demand this holiday season.

What will be the biggest sales peak in 2021?

We asked Pattern’s senior leadership team what their predictions for 2021 Q4 peak sales were, and specifically for the biggest day in terms of revenue.

For the Middle East, USA, and Australia, Black Friday and that Cyber Weekend (sometimes referred to as the Cyber 5) is expected to see the largest peak in sales, especially online, while in China and Europe, Singles’ Day, and December respectively, will see the largest peak.

Australia

Pattern’s General Manager for Australia Merline McGregor commented: “We’ve seen an increase in online shoppers in the past 12 months thanks to COVID-19 and store closures–59% of sessions being new. In addition to this, August 2021 saw our biggest tracked revenue month in our Benchmark Report’s history, with revenue exceeding November 2020 (the previous record holder) by 21%. This was primarily due to New South Wales and Victoria being in lockdown. If this trend continues, we’ll likely continue to see some record-breaking months ahead.”

She added: “Despite most physical retail likely to be back open by this point, I’d assume there will continue to be some hesitation around crowded shopping centers and so consumers will continue to shop online.”

USA

Pattern's USA Director of Marketplaces George Hatch agreed that COVID variants will limit brick-and-mortar sales and some retailers will shift to being closed over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as Walmart is planning to be. However, Black Friday will still likely be the highest revenue day for ecommerce.

George Hatch also predicted that: “this holiday season we expect to see deals spread out rather than crammed into a single day. Black Friday and Cyber Monday will surely see the lion's share of discounts and promotions, but shoppers can expect to see deals throughout the Thanksgiving weekend and well into December, and likewise retailers should anticipate a big lift over Turkey 5–the 5 days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Weekend. We saw this trend in 2020 as the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend saw the highest YoY growth at 113%.”

Middle East

Meanwhile, General Manager MENA David Quaife predicted the White/Black Friday weekend will also see the most sales in the UAE and Saudi Arabia: “White Friday will be, and has always been, the biggest online selling period. Typically, online retailers should expect to see 3.5x increase in sales in November vs October–this may vary between pureplay and omnichannel retailers.” In the past year or two, the Middle Eastern ecommerce market has experienced sharp growth which is why he expects to see a very strong performance for the big online players this year.

Additionally, the delayed Expo 2020 Dubai will commence in October 2021 and run through to end of March 2022. The footfall to this event will provide a major boost to retail sectors with many visitors expected from outside countries such as Europe and the USA. David stated it would be interesting to see if any of these customers place online orders with Amazon.ae during their stay.

Latin America

In Latin America, though Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still large festivals, Buen Fin which takes place earlier in November, usually kick-starts the shopping season in Mexico.

“Brands need to be ready by the time Buen Fin rolls around to not miss out on capturing the entirety of Mexico's shopping season. Last year, the event raked in US$11.9 billion in total revenue for both brick-and-mortar and ecommerce,” George Hatch advised.

Europe

In Europe, Torsten predicted: “This year, the biggest days for online sales could be as late as Sunday 19th and Monday 20th December, because of when Christmas falls.” Furthermore, he stated: “last year was an exceptionally strong Q4 online because of store closures, and so retailers may not achieve year-on-year sales increases online. However, they should see growth on their 2019 holiday sales–maybe as much as 25% to 50% growth on their sales two years ago if they are running an established online shop and if they have acquired new customers in 2020 who have become more confident buying online.”

China

In China, Singles’ Day is the biggest 24-hour online shopping festival in the world and is expected to continue being so. Pattern’s General Manager Asia, Arthur Cheung predicted: “Tmall will release the best offers seen throughout the year. However, the sales volume will be so large that it will heavily impact the speed of the fulfilment. It could take a month for an order to arrive to the customer, which is not very common in China where delivery times are usually within 2-3 days.”

And it’s not just in China where we expect to see issues with delays in fulfilment processes. Pattern’s leadership team in Europe, the USA, and China expect that retailers and brands will focus their efforts on trying to spread out sales peaks and promotions so their warehouses and delivery infrastructure can cope.

The impact on delivery delays, fulfilment processes and logistics

In Europe, typically Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales have been spread out over the week leading up to the shopping event and the whole week of Cyber Monday–a trend that Torsten predicted will continue. He also added: “This is a combination of retailers trying to attract spend before their competitors and retailers spreading out the peak so that their fulfilment operations can cope with the spike in demand. Last year, Amazon ran Prime Day in mid-October, but it has already taken place this year, so discounting and promotions are likely to be more focused on the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, with retailers trying to maintain full price sales prior to that.”

Meanwhile, delivery delays are not expected to be such an issue in Europe and the Middle East, but there could be real issues in other regions. In the USA, Amazon has been working to improve its logistics capabilities by relying less on UPS and USPS, but George still anticipates that many products will not arrive in time for Christmas if they are bought after early to mid-December.

Similarly, in Australia it has already been advised that consumers can expect lengthy delivery delays leading up to Christmas. Therefore, Merline predicted that the majority of consumers will aim to get most of their Christmas shopping completed by Cyber Weekend, hence why she believes Black Friday will be the strongest day on the 2021 trading calendar.

How retailers can cope with excess stock issues

Lastly, in Australia and the UAE it is expected that retailers will have lots of stock to discount that they haven’t been able to sell while stores were closed. They will likely try and discount online to get rid of product over the Black/White Friday and Cyber Monday weekend.

David expects to see a very big push from these businesses to clear a lot of that aged inventory in the month of November with deep discounts, which may then result in a big swing to online channels. Merline also mentioned that some retailers who are eager to clear stock will offer significant promotions. However, others in Australia have consistently faced stock shortages and logistics delays during 2021 and will not want to discount stock so close to the Christmas period.

Looking for more Q4 advice from industry experts across marketplaces, advertising, fulfillment, data insights, and brand protection? Get in touch with Pattern to learn how we can accelerate your brand.

Explore Our Ecommerce Resource Library

Find relevant content to accelerate your ecommerce business. Stay on top of industry trends and best practices.

Sept 27, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 27th September 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon drives renewable energy push with 71 new projects Amazon is planning to add 2.7 gigawatts of clean energy capacity through a couple of new projects as the company attempts to use 100% renewable energy by 2025. The ecommerce business will soon have a total of 329 renewable energy projects, generating 50,000 gigawatt hours of clean energy, which is equivalent to powering 4.6 million US homes every year. [Read more on Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/amazon-drives-renewable-energy-push-with-71-new-projects-2022-09-21/) Amazon launches Prime Early Access Sale Amazon is launching a new 2-day shopping event for its Prime members only, beginning on the 11th of October. Across 15 countries, Prime customers will have access to the shopping event, with thousands of deals on offer globall, ranging from fashion to electronics to essentials. The event has the purpose of giving Prime users the chance to spread the cost of items over the winter months, 6 weeks ahead of Black Friday. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/26/prime-early-access-sale/) --- Other Marketplace News --- Shopify unveils new localisation tool Shopify is launching a new localisation tool, called Translate & Adapt, which works with Shopify Markets to offer localisation for sellers who are looking to expand into new markets. The tool translates a user’s online store into different languages, including product pages and information pages. Merchants are also able to create different shipping terms for each market using the new tool, which allows international expansion and offers a more localised consumer experience, unveiling new potential. [Read more on Ecommerce News](https://ecommercenews.eu/shopify-launches-new-localisation-tool/) Etsy is set to invest hundreds of millions into its marketing platform Etsy CEO claims that the company is on route to spend more than $570 million USD on marketing this year. Even during a time of macroeconomic pressure, inflation and rising interest rates, the company is preparing itself and its sellers for the upcoming holiday season and is focused on retaining interest from buyers. [Read more on Yahoo News](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/etsy-600-million-on-marketing-ceo-154054219.html) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Meta looks to cut costs by 10% in the coming months Meta employees are facing job redundancies as the company plans to cut its costs by 10% over the next few months. Meta reported a 22% YoY increase in costs and expenses, totalling over $20 billion USD. The cuts are expected to come in the form of job redundancies as a result of department reorganisations rather than formal layoffs. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/22/meta-to-slash-costs-by-10-over-coming-months/) DHL teams up with Quadient to offer smart locker deliveries in the UK DHL and tech company, Quadient, have partnered to offer smart lockers parcel pick-up throughout the UK. The new contactless, secure locker stations will give recipients more choice and flexibility to receive their parcels at a time and location best suited to them. The partnership plans to install 500 locker stations across the country by the end of 2022. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/21/dhl-partners-with-quadient-to-offer-smart-locker-delivery/) The online fashion market is set to be worth nearly $170 billion USD in 2025 The European online fashion retail market is set to grow 50% by 2025, with an online turnover of $170 billion USD, which is 33% of the retail branch’s total. Cross-border marketplaces prove to be the largest drivers of this growth, with online websites and apps like Vinted largely pushing the market’s online growth. Zalando recently became the largest cross-border fashion retailer/marketplace, responsible for 11.7% of the online market’s share. [Read more on Ecommerce News](https://ecommercenews.eu/online-fashion-market-worth-e175-billion-in-2025/)
Sept 22, 2022

How an Amazon SEO Agency Should Be Serving Your Brand

If you’re in the global ecommerce space, you are most likely aware of Amazon, and probably selling your products on the marketplace. With over $470 billion in sales in 2021 alone, Amazon stands as the third largest company in the world based on revenue. The ecommerce giant is a household name in the U.S. and working hard to grow its market share across five continents worldwide.

Having your products available on Amazon and being competitive there, though, are definitely two different things. If you want to really succeed on Amazon, you’ll need specialized insight into how Amazon works and how to make it work for you. So, for many brands, it’s a great idea to work with an Amazon Search Engine Optimization (SEO) agency.

At Pattern, Amazon SEO optimization service is one of our key competencies. We understand that technology, data-driven insights and expertise  are the most important tools brands can leverage to win top listing spots on digital marketplaces. With expert teams and years of experience, we help brands conquer the Profitability Death Spiral as they compete with other products and sellers online. We offer Amazon SEO agency services as a core solution to brands that need more resources to get ahead. 

What is an Amazon SEO Agency?

An Amazon SEO agency serves brands by improving their products’ rank and listing performance on Amazon. They make strategic decisions about ad spending and placement that lead to higher traffic, conversions, and revenue for ecommerce brands.

A great Amazon SEO Agency partner will:

Prioritize Your Success

Unfortunately, many Amazon SEO agencies profit in unfair ways from your brands’ perceived success based on the ROAS numbers they provide. This is done through including branded search terms in ROAS reports, which naturally skew listing performance

Let’s say, for instance, your brand is called “Annie’s” and you sell lollipops. Your brand has a very high likelihood of winning the top listing spots on Amazon for lollipop search terms that are paired with “Annie’s,” your brand name. So, SEO agencies will spend your ad money on those terms and report a very high ROAS. 

To avoid scenarios like these, it’s best to look for an agency that either calculates their profits on metrics other than your ROAS scores or weighs branded search terms differently in the performance metrics reports. Regardless of your Amazon SEO agency’s cost structure, you should align onbranded search terms before committing to a scope of work.

Provide Detailed Competitive Insight

A great indicator of a high-quality Amazon SEO agency is the level of insight they can provide into your competitors’ listing positioning and how it compares to yours. Data fanaticism is so important at Pattern that we’ve developed proprietary technology to display this exact information with precise detail for every brand we work with. In fact, you can find our free version here to see how you compare to some of your top competitors based on ASIN.

It’s certainly possible to improve your Amazon search performance with blind spending strategies. But a truly great solution will help you to know where your dollars are at their most powerful and competitive.

Reduce Your Ad Spend Over Time

Amazon’s A10 algorithm prioritizes customer satisfaction—it wants to show consumers the best products that align with their search intent to improve conversions and sales. So, the best way to gain momentum on Amazon is to work on incremental wins. 

Improving your performance on more obscure search terms that align with your customers’ search intent is a great way to increase ROAS for the long term. A10 will reward your success with better rankings on higher-volume search terms and the virtuous cycle can help you conquer your most-coveted listing spots. And the best part? This process of gaining momentum, if done right, will naturally decrease your ad spend over time as Amazon recognizes your value and works with you to keep your products at the top of consumers’ search results.

Amazon SEO Optimization and More

As an Amazon SEO specialist, Pattern knows how to help your brand win better success for long-term profitability on Amazon. With our data-driven tools and brilliant teams of ecommerce experts, we help brands with listing management, content optimization, Amazon ad strategies, and more.

Contact us to learn more about our SEO optimization services.

Sept 20, 2022

4 Ecommerce Marketplace Consultant Must-Haves

Entering the ecommerce landscape is a huge undertaking for any brand—it usually requires a large investment in resources and expertise to really be successful. Any brand can quickly get in over their heads trying to navigate the nuances of SEO, fulfillment and logistics, distribution control, listing optimization, and meeting the numerous other requirements and administrative tasks to show up well on marketplaces. 

Unfortunately, because it’s so easy for third party, gray market, and unauthorized sellers to obtain and sell products online, many brands find themselves pressured to execute an ecommerce plan without the right resources to succeed on marketplaces and their other channels.

So, for brands looking to enter the ecommerce space or improve their current and future performance, it makes sense to partner with an ecommerce consultant.

Pattern’s global presence and proven success with hundreds of brands has allowed us to develop highly effective ecommerce consulting services. We can guide your brand to navigate issues both large and small in marketplaces worldwide. To maximize your ecommerce efforts, you’ll need to understand what an ecommerce consultant does and how to select one who drives the right value for your brand and products. 

What is an Ecommerce Consultant?

An ecommerce consultant is a specialist in the ecommerce space who can give you personalized guidance on how to market your products and grow their presence on digital marketplaces.

An ecommerce consultant should be able to analyze your brand, audience, category, opportunity, and current roadblocks and help you understand how to utilize your resources (or what resources are missing) to be most effective in capturing your opportunities in the ecommerce space.

Not sure how to evaluate a consultant? Here are 4 key attributes to look for as you make your choice.

1. Brand Obsession/Specialization/Passion

At Pattern, we prioritize brand obsession for a reason—we know that a brand-centered mindset makes a crucial difference in the outcomes and results our partners achieve. So in our experience, when you begin your search for an ecommerce consultant, it’s important to look for a partner who is specialized in ecommerce, invested in the product, and passionate about helping brands build and improve their strategies. Typically, this means finding someone that consults exclusively for ecommerce marketplaces, rather than choosing a consultant who offers many different services. 

2. Proven Results

It’s also important to avoid choosing a consulting partner who can’t deliver the right experience for your brand. The best indication of whether your potential consultant can do that is to review their history, data, and results with other brands. Ask if they’ve helped others in your selling category, if they’ve solved specific issues your brand is facing, and why they feel you are a good fit. The key is to leave the conversation feeling confident that you understand your consultants’ capabilities and whether or not they match up with your needs.

3. Wide Range of Marketplace Expertise

It’s best to pick a consultant who knows how to guide a brand onto and through multiple marketplaces worldwide. You’ll want to take a look at your long-term strategy and think about the regions and platforms you’re currently on and where you might want to take your brand in the future. If your consultant is truly great at what they do, they’ll be able to help you perform well enough with your current product roadmap that it’ll be a no-brainer to expand your presence at the right time.

4. Network of Resources

The most effective partnership with an ecommerce consultant will be able to give you both recommendations and point you to solutions for making those changes in your planning, processes, and execution. Your time and money is valuable, so you want to make sure that you’re spending it as efficiently as possible as you follow your consultant’s advice. So, before you commit to an ecommerce consultant, ask about the resources and concrete solutions they typically recommend to the brands they work with.

Achieve Your Ecommerce Goals With Pattern

Finding an ecommerce consultant that checks the boxes can be a difficult task. At Pattern, our entire focus and drive centers around giving brands the tools and resources they need to succeed on domestic and international ecommerce marketplaces. 

With over 100 global ecommerce consultants across 10 global offices, we have the right tools to partner with brands across the world to achieve better ecommerce success. We give specialized advice, then make sure our partners have all the adequate SEO, social media, CRM, Amazon multi-channel fulfillment services, and ecommerce outsourcing services they need.

Interested in ecommerce consulting services? Set up a call here to learn what Pattern can do for your brand on global marketplaces.