The Biggest Influences on Consumer Demand for Coffee Products

Pattern Data Science

September 15, 2022

What Drives Consumer Demand for Coffee Products?

Pattern analyzes the top influences driving consumer demand for coffee products from 2020 – 22.

Key Highlights:

  • Coffee brands by highest consumer demand
    • When is consumer demand for coffee brands highest?
  • Cold brew vs. hot coffee vs. espresso — what do consumers want?
    • Prime Day and weather drive consumer demand for coffee, cold brew, and espresso
  • Coffee types in highest demand
  • Coffee machines in highest demand
    • When is coffee machine demand highest?
  • Key takeaways for ecommerce coffee retailers

As National Coffee Day approaches on September 29, our team decided to take a closer look at what’s been driving consumer demand for various coffee products from 2020 – 22.

While retailers might not expect an increase in consumer demand during National Coffee Day in September, our analysis suggests a strong correlation between higher overall demand for coffee products and Prime Day. With rumors of another Prime Day slated for October 2022, it’s important for ecommerce coffee retailers to prepare for possible increased demand during this time.

Coffee Brands by Highest Consumer Demand

Our team made some surprising discoveries when it came to consumers’ coffee brand preferences. Even though Starbucks, Maxwell House, Dunkin, and Folgers hold the largest market shares in the space, Starbucks was the only brand that consistently remained at the top of consumers’ minds from 2020 – 22. Privately owned brands like Black Rifle Coffee, Community Coffee, Café Bustelo, and Death Wish rounded out the top five coffee brands in highest demand during this same period. Here’s a look at the spread of consumer demand among the brands we analyzed:

When is Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands Highest?

Consumer demand for specific coffee brands tends to be highest at three main points throughout the year: Valentine’s Day, Prime Day, and the period from Thanksgiving – Christmas Day. When observing seasonality trends in both 2020 and 2021, we can see this pattern repeat itself in both years:

Cold Brew vs. Hot Coffee vs. Espresso — What Do Consumers Want?

Overall, demand for coffee, cold brew, and espresso products has remained fairly consistent over the years. When observing weekly change in demand for each of these products in 2020, 2021, and 2022, we see very little fluctuation except for Prime Day:

Interestingly, espresso was the only category that experienced a spike in consumer demand. As consumers seek out deals on products with higher price points (i.e. espresso), demand for high-end coffee increases around Prime Day. Compared to the week preceding Prime Day, here’s how demand for espresso products increased from 2020 – 2022:

  • 2020: 198% increase during the week of October 11
  • 2021: 169% increase during the week of June 20
  • 2022: 252% increase during the week of July 10

Prime Day and Weather Drive Consumer Demand for Coffee, Cold Brew & Espresso

Prime Day is the driving force behind increased demand for espresso products. However, there are other noteworthy patterns our team observed that point to what may be influencing demand throughout the year — specifically weather changes.

For instance, when comparing seasonality in 2020 to 2021, we can see how demand for cold brew coffee sees an annual increase starting around May and tapering off by the end of September. Conversely, demand for espresso tends to fall during this same period (except for when Prime Day occurs during the summer in 2021).

Despite the cyclical increased demand for cold brew coffee products, however, demand overall for these products appears to be on a downward trend when comparing year over year demand:

Coffee Types in Highest Demand

The pandemic had little effect on consumer demand for coffee products in terms of brand, boldness, and temperature. However, when it came to specific types of coffee (whole bean, K-cup, ground, instant, etc.), the pandemic was an obvious factor influencing demand. In particular, coffee beans saw the highest increase in demand with a 182% increase over the annual average for 2020 during the week after the pandemic was formally declared:

We further see the pandemic’s influence on consumer demand when observing year over year change in demand from 2020 to 2021 in the chart below:

During the same week the pandemic was declared in 2020, demand for all products in this category fell significantly in 2021. K-cups saw the sharpest decrease at -74% year over year.

The pandemic wasn’t the only factor influencing consumer demand in 2020. In the charts below, we see Prime Day is a key factor in determining when demand will be highest across all types of coffee in 2021 and 2022:

Once more, we can see how products with higher price points see increased demand during Prime Day. K-cups and coffee beans saw the highest increase in demand during these periods. When comparing the week preceding Prime Day, here’s how much demand increased across these two product categories:

  • K-Cups | 2021: 74% increase during week of June 20
  • Coffee Beans | 2021: 31% increase during week of June 20
  • K-Cups | 2022: 98% increase during week of July 10
  • Coffee Beans | 2022: 31% increase during week of July 10

Coffee Machines in the Highest Demand

In every week where Prime Day occurred from 2020 – 22, demand for coffee machines of all types rose significantly. Just like with coffee beans, K-cups, and espresso, coffee machines see a spike in demand during this time because consumers are seeking out deals on products that are normally more expensive:

Espresso machines and Keurig machines are in the highest demand during this time while percolators, cold brew coffee makers, and French press machines take up the rear. This is likely due to the fact that espresso machines and Keurig machines have a higher price point than percolators, cold brew coffee makers, and French press machines.

When is Coffee Machines Demand Highest?

Not only can increased demand for coffee machines be observed during Prime Day, but consumers also tend to search more for these products during the holiday season and on Valentine’s Day. Using 2021 as the baseline for “new normal” in terms of seasonality, the chart below illustrates how consumer demand for coffee machines changes in a typical year:

As we can see, demand surges around Valentine’s Day with Keurig machines taking the lead in demand. This is likely due to the company’s annual Valentine’s Day sale. From Thanksgiving until Cyber Monday, demand increases again, this time with espresso and Keurig machines leading the way. Consumers are likely searching more for high-end products during this time as they prepare for holiday gifting and try to take advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday savings.

Key Takeaways for Ecommerce Coffee Retailers

This data offers invaluable insights for ecommerce coffee retailers. First, the influence of Prime Day over consumer demand for all coffee products cannot be underestimated. Particularly, products that have a higher price point should be made available to consumers who are searching for such goods in higher volume during Prime Day than at any other time of the year.

Along with Prime Day, ecommerce coffee brands should take note of how other holidays and weather change directly impact consumer demand. Thanksgiving, Valentine’s Day, and weather patterns all impact when certain products are in highest demand. By understanding when these changes occur throughout the year, coffee retailers can better coordinate inventory, fulfillment, marketing, and customer service at these critical moments.

Want to use patterns like these to empower your brand throughout the year? Request a demo with Pattern to improve your ecommerce strategy today!

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Sept 6, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 6th September 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon announces new inventory and distribution service, AWD Amazon has launched Amazon Warehousing and Distribution (AWD), providing inventory and distribution services to its sellers as a means of addressing current supply chain issues. AWD is now available for sellers using Fulfilment by Amazon (FBA), i.e. outsourcing their fulfilment to the platform. Amazon has plans to expand the service outside the platform in 2023. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/02/amazon-introduces-new-service-to-help-solve-supply-chain-challenges/) Amazon Web Services (AWS) launches in the UAE AWS, Amazon’s cloud-computing platform offering, has launched its second region in the Middle East and now provides its services in the UAE. The move will now allow anyone in the UAE who utilises cloud technologies to harness AWS’s advanced platforms and APIs. An estimated $11 billion USD is expected to be added to the UAE’s GDP thanks to the implementation, with an average of 6,000 external vendor jobs to be created annually. AWS is now available in 87 zones across 27 regions, with sights set on expanding further across Australia, Canada, India, Israel, New Zealand, Spain, and Switzerland. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/30/amazon-web-services-launches-region-in-uae/) --- Other Marketplace News --- Lazada to launch in Europe Alibaba-owned ecommerce platform Lazada is set to launch in Europe, marking a refreshed internationalisation push from the company. The move follows toughening economic conditions and performance in Southeast Asia, advancing the need to tap overseas markets. In Europe, Lazada will face tough competition from giants like Amazon and Zalando. Lazada’s exact entry strategy is to be confirmed and will be reliant on macroeconomic and market conditions, according to Lazada CEO James Dong. [Read more on DigitalCommerce360](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2022/09/01/alibabas-lazada-to-take-on-amazon-zalando-in-europe-push/) Chinese ecommerce giant Pinduoduo to launch cross-border platform in the United States Pinduoduo, a Chinese ecommerce giant rivalling Alibaba and JD, has announced it will be launching a new cross-border ecommerce platform. The marketplace is set to launch in the United States next month, as part of the company’s larger push into new markets. Pinduoduo found success in China thanks to its rock-bottom price offerings and harnessing of social commerce marketing, emulating strategies similar to fast-fashion giant Shein. [Read more on Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pinduoduo-launch-international-e-commerce-034129263.html) Alibaba launches its biggest B2B sales event, ‘Super September’ China ecommerce giant, Alibaba, has now launched its month-long B2B sales event ‘Super September’. The event provides 40 million buyers and 200,000 suppliers with the ability to connect on the platform, showcasing a ‘virtually unlimited’ number of products. The event hopes to foster new cross-border business relationships to tackle supply chain challenges currently faced by businesses. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/01/alibaba-launches-super-september-b2b-sales-event/) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Klarna’s losses quadruple in first half of 2022 BNPL provider, Klarna, has reported losses of $581 million USD for the first half of 2022. This figure is almost four times larger than a year earlier, where $129 million USD in losses were reported. The company attributes the losses to employee costs, technology investments, and rising credit losses. Klarna’s figure reporting comes amidst worsening economic conditions, fresh legal and regulatory scrutiny, and pressure from Big Tech competitors. [Read more on The Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/483451db-9221-4ca4-83a6-b4ddc6bfcfbb) [Read more on the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/31/klarna-losses-more-than-triple-as-consumer-spending-slows) One fifth of Snap employees to be laid off amidst poor financial performance Social media platform Snap (‘Snapchat’) has announced it will be laying off 20% of its employees and closing out a number of projects following a year of poor financial results.The move will see 1,200 employees globally lose their jobs, saving the company an estimated $500 million USD in costs. Snap is currently valued at $20 billion, an 84% decrease from its valuation of $130 billion last year. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/01/snap-to-lay-off-20-of-its-workforce-and-wind-down-a-number-of-projects/)
Aug 30, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 30th August 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon set to shut down Amazon Care Amazon is closing its telehealth service, Amazon Care, which launched in 2019 as a trial program for its headquartered employees. Later the service was rolled out nationwide for employees and other companies. The ecommerce giant has now made the decision to move away from the healthcare space, believing it was not the right long-term solution for its enterprise customers. [Read more on CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/amazon-is-shutting-down-amazon-care-telehealth-service.html) Peloton closes new deal to sell on Amazon Following a recent deal, Amazon customers will soon be able to buy Peloton fitness equipment on the marketplace, marking Peleton’s first move outside a direct-to-consumer model. According to Peloton’s CCO, there are already around half a million searches on Amazon for Peloton products every month, despite having no presence on the marketplace. Some key products include the original Peloton Bike, retailing for $1,445 and Peloton Guide for $295. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/24/peloton-strikes-deal-to-sell-fitness-equipment-on-amazon/) --- Other Marketplace News --- 60% of Malaysians are buying from local sellers on Shopee A recent survey of nearly 3,500 respondents found that nearly half of the shoppers prefer to purchase from local sellers due to shorter delivery times. Other shoppers decide to shop locally due to the quality of the products made in Malaysia and an interest in keeping the economy running. As a result, smaller local merchants have been able to grow their businesses, and shoppers benefit from shorter delivery times, products of high quality and supporting local businesses. [Read more on The Malaysian Reserve](https://themalaysianreserve.com/2022/08/25/around-60-malaysians-are-buying-from-local-sellers-on-shopee/) Flipkart’s social commerce platform Shopsy crosses 100 million users Flipkart launched a social commerce arm, Shopsy, in July of last year, which has now surpassed 100 million users, ahead of its target timeline being the end of 2022. This acquisition of new users has made Shopsy one of the largest platforms of its kind in the country, and is expected to onboard a further 100 million by the end of 2023. The platform is centred around boosting local entrepreneurship and powering ecommerce for consumers across tier 2+ regions where users face challenges around trust and navigation when shopping online. [Read more on Business Standard](https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/flipkart-s-social-commerce-platform-shopsy-hits-100-million-users-1220828006851.html) Meta joins Amazon and Walmart in bid for Indian ecommerce market Amazon mentioned earlier in the year that it would be building a logistics division in-house through its purchase of a 51% stake in Ecom Express, an end-to-end logistics firm, to make ecommerce deliveries more efficient in the country. Walmart operates Flipkart in India and is set to continue its investment in the marketplace. In an effort to compete in the Indian ecommerce market, Meta has partnered with Indian ecommerce company, JioMart, to offer customers a grocery shopping platform within its WhatsApp chat feature. [Read more on Pymnts](https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2022/meta-joins-amazon-walmart-indian-ecommerce-market/) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Ecommerce in Spain worth €57.7 billion in 2021 Spanish ecommerce saw 11.7% growth compared to last year, largely attributed to cross-border sales. In the final quarter of 2021, ecommerce sales in Spain were at €16.9 billion euros, at least 60% of which came from cross-border sales. Transactions from foreign locations to Spain generated a turnover of €1.56 billion in Q4, a growth of 27.7% compared to Q4 a year before. [Read more on Ecommerce News](https://ecommercenews.eu/ecommerce-in-spain-was-worth-e57-7-billion-in-2021/)
Aug 23, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 23rd August 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon to add mental health support to primary-care service Amazon is set to move into mental health therapy with its primary-care division, following its recent acquisition deal of One Medical. The plan is to partner with virtual behavioural therapy service, Ginger, to offer its Amazon Care users with on-demand access to mental health services, licensed therapists and psychiatrists. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/11/amazon-plans-to-add-mental-health-support-to-primary-care-service/) GMB union calls for £15 an hour minimum pay at UK Amazon warehouses Amazon recently offered its warehouse workers a 3% pay rise, which in comparison to the June inflation rate of 9.4% left employees disappointed. Following this, hundreds of Amazon warehouse workers stopped work last week, protesting against the minimal pay increase, seeking a minimum of £15 an hour. Recent protests consisting of employee walkouts and sit-ins aim to get a better offer out of Amazon. [Read more on The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/09/gmb-calls-for-15-an-hour-minimum-pay-at-amazon-warehouses-in-uk) Amazon third-party sellers have received their first-ever holiday fee hike Amazon’s third-party marketplaces account for close to half of the company’s online sales. The company introduced a 5% fuel and inflation charge to its third-party sellers earlier this year, and has now implemented another inflation increase charge. Commencing 14 October, any seller who uses Amazon’s fulfilment service is subject to the price hike, which is set to be an additional 35 cents per item for products sold in the US and Canada. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/17/amazon-third-party-sellers-have-received-their-first-ever-holiday-fee-hike/) Amazon puts a pause on UK grocery shop roll-out as the cost of living increases Amazon has slowed down on its UK roll-out of till-free Amazon Fresh grocery stores following disappointing sales and the rise in cost of living. Allegedly, the company is no longer looking for potential sites to expand and if more stores are opened, they will likely no longer use a till-free system, as consumers become more cautious about spending. [Read more on The Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/21/amazon-pauses-uk-grocery-shop-roll-out-following-disappointing/) --- Other Marketplace News --- Shopee overtakes Alibaba across international markets Shopee has surpassed Alibaba and taken the top spot for sales outside of China. Singapore-based marketplace saw a year-on-year increase of 51.4% at the end of Q2 of this year, while Alibaba saw a 3% drop during the same time period. This can be seen as a promising development for start-ups and their ability to compete with some of the largest ecommerce giants in the market. [Read more on Exchange Wire](https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2022/08/18/shopee-surpasses-alibaba-in-international-sales-amazon-searches-for-entertainment-exec/) H&M reopens its official store to Alibaba’s Tmall ecommerce platform It has been nearly 18 months since Alibaba removed H&M from its Tmall platform, following H&M’s criticism of human rights abuses in Xinjiang. It is estimated that over a million people, predominantly minorities in the area, have been unlawfully detained in camps across the city. Brands including Nike, Adidas, Burberry and Converse were swept up in the controversy, however H&M was one of the first to be targeted for speaking out about the issue. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/16/hm-returns-to-alibabas-tmall-platform-16-months-after-xinjiang-controversy/) Klarna launches new feature allowing UK consumers to view full online order history Buy-now-pay-later company, Klarna, has launched a new feature on its shopping app, which allows UK consumers to view their full online order history, regardless of whether they purchased the product using Klarna. The feature also shows delivery tracking and aids consumers in managing their online purchases more conveniently. [Read more on The Industry](https://www.theindustry.fashion/klarna-launches-new-feature-allowing-uk-consumers-to-view-full-online-order-history/) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Online marketplaces responsible for £280 billion business turnover in the UK Nearly 900,000 UK businesses are currently selling on online marketplaces, generating an estimated £282 billion worth of sales each year. This figure represents 6% of the UK’s annual business turnover, highlighting the notable contribution that marketplaces make to the UK economy, along with the potential for further growth in this area. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/09/online-marketplaces-responsible-for-280-billion-business-turnover-in-uk/)