Pattern’s 2022 Ecommerce Predictions From Around the World

Akta Bavalia

February 3, 2022

Businesses who sell online have faced two years of uncertainty, so will our 2022 ecommerce predictions offer them clarity on where online retail markets are headed this year?

Many brands are comparing their 2021 online sales results with 2019, rather than 2020, as it was considered such an exceptional year. 2022 will likely see the growth curve return to what most would have predicted at the end of 2019, while retaining much of the increase in share that online sales have taken from offline channels.

In this blog, Pattern’s marketplace experts share their 2022 ecommerce predictions for the year ahead with insights on trading patterns, which online players are winning, and challenges that we are yet to overcome.

ONLINE SALES CONTINUE TO GROW

The year-on-year comparisons for the first quarter may not look promising – particularly in Europe which was in a strict lockdown during the same period in 2021 – but overall, there is still some growth potential for online sales. Our leadership team across China, UAE, USA, Australia and Europe predict that there will be growth in 2022, but not at the rates seen during 2020 and 2021.

Pattern’s German Country Manager Torsten Schaefer believes it will be tough for businesses to achieve year-on-year sales growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 due to the lockdown during the first half of 2021, but overall, throughout 2022 he expects to see a growth rate of 10%.

The growth rates are expected to be stronger in both the China and USA, which will suffer less from exceptional comparative figures from 2021, as neither market had substantial lockdowns last year. Both Pattern’s General Manager for Asia Arthur Cheung and US-based Director of Marketplaces George Hatch predict we could see a growth rates of near 20% in their respective markets.

Merline McGregor, Pattern’s General Manager for Australia, shares similar predictions for her market. She explains that it will be important for businesses to “align investment with long-term growth, the opposite to the last two years which has been about reacting to the market.”

The Middle East has also seen less restrictions in comparison to most other regions. MENA General Manager, David Quaife, who is based in the UAE, expects to see growth continue in a similar fashion to 2021. However, any introduction of new lockdown measures could catapult online sales figures, as occurred in 2020.

MARKETPLACES WIN IN 2022

Marketplaces have fueled ecommerce growth rates for years and will continue to do so in some markets in 2022.

Pattern’s Arthur Cheung points out that cross-border marketplaces – such as Tmall Global – have become Chinese consumers’ primary source of foreign goods, as it is hard for them to travel overseas to shop at the moment. Prior to the pandemic, Chinese tourist spend was materially important to premium and luxury retailers in many major cities such as Hong Kong, Sydney, Paris, Milan and London. Now Chinese shoppers are flocking to marketplaces to buy these products, Alibaba says its Tmall Global cross-border shopping platform has 100 million annual users.

Tmall is also not the only marketplace to consider in China, and brands should think about whether they need a presence on others, such as JD.com, Koala, Pindoudou and Suning, to maximise their sales opportunities. Arthur tells us, “In China it is increasingly important that brands have multiple touchpoints with end customers, and have products available on more than one marketplace, as we will not see any one platform capture all the revenue growth.”

Similarly in the Middle East, David Quaife predicts that there will be more than one marketplace winner. He says: “Amazon will be the dominant player in the Middle East but Noon and other retailers with their omnichannel propositions have doubled down on investment throughout 2020 and 2021.” In his markets, customer experience drives customer retention, and that will be key to who can take market share in markets that will continue to quickly grow.

In other markets Amazon has less competition and will defend the dominant position it has risen to.

Amazon.com already accounted for 41% of USA ecommerce sales in 2021 and whilst we continue to see this grow, George Hatch believes it will be at a slower pace in 2022. He also predicts that Walmart - currently the number two marketplace in the USA - will gain share as it scales and matures, and invests in new digital infrastructure.

In Australia, Merline McGregor fully expects Amazon to continue its phenomenal growth, gaining ground from other traditional brand aggregators in 2022. She says: “The brands that Pattern sells on marketplaces in Australia have grown in excess of 200% year-on-year in January 2022. Our research shows us that with the sharp uptick in Prime subscriptions in the Australian market combined with Amazon’s reliability, and fulfilment centres located close to most of Australia’s population, the marketplace has set itself up for success in 2022 and beyond.”

COMMON CONSTRAINTS

Another theme in the Pattern team’s 2022 ecommerce predictions was the constraint on ecommerce logistics and supply chains. The past two years have posed challenges in most regions, but improvements are finally feeding through. In Europe, Torsten Schaefer says that ecommerce players, and particularly Amazon, have increased their warehouse capacity through 2021, but a lack of capacity will remain a challenge in 2022.

In the UAE, David Quaife states: “There has been a huge focus and investment in this area over the last two years, so I would not foresee any major issues with last mile delivery. However, the supply chain, largely due to manufacturing issues, will continue to have a negative impact into 2022; hopefully this will reduce in the second half of the year.”

Merline McGregor and George Hatch predict there are still lots of challenges to overcome in both the USA and Australia. George believes capacity and inflation will drive US logistics costs to new highs, Just In Time inventory will need to change to allow for more of a buffer, and manufacturers will need to build in longer shipping times to ensure product is available when in demand.

Merline adds: “The scarcity of natural products such as wood to produce pallets, and Urea (a fuel additive used in diesel trucks) could see our supply chain environment continue to be disrupted until 2023 and beyond.”

SOCIAL COMMERCES GOES GLOBAL

Social commerce is one trend that will unite Eastern and Western markets in 2022. TikTok, also known as Douyin in China, has grown in popularity across the globe. As the platform evolves its capabilities to become ecommerce friendly outside of China, both Merline McGregor and Arthur Cheung predict it will be an important channel globally.

Last year, Pattern released a report outlining how social channels are becoming significantly important in creating demand generation amongst consumers, as well as brand awareness.

“Social channels are a great way of capturing new audiences and encourage impulse spending. It has been around for years in China but in 2022, we expect to see even more livestream shopping events, brands commercialising their content and other markets outside of Asia following suit," concludes Arthur Cheung.

For regular free ecommerce insights and research, see our Ecommerce Research page at https://pattern.com/uk/resources/ecommerce-research/.

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Sept 6, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 6th September 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon announces new inventory and distribution service, AWD Amazon has launched Amazon Warehousing and Distribution (AWD), providing inventory and distribution services to its sellers as a means of addressing current supply chain issues. AWD is now available for sellers using Fulfilment by Amazon (FBA), i.e. outsourcing their fulfilment to the platform. Amazon has plans to expand the service outside the platform in 2023. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/02/amazon-introduces-new-service-to-help-solve-supply-chain-challenges/) Amazon Web Services (AWS) launches in the UAE AWS, Amazon’s cloud-computing platform offering, has launched its second region in the Middle East and now provides its services in the UAE. The move will now allow anyone in the UAE who utilises cloud technologies to harness AWS’s advanced platforms and APIs. An estimated $11 billion USD is expected to be added to the UAE’s GDP thanks to the implementation, with an average of 6,000 external vendor jobs to be created annually. AWS is now available in 87 zones across 27 regions, with sights set on expanding further across Australia, Canada, India, Israel, New Zealand, Spain, and Switzerland. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/30/amazon-web-services-launches-region-in-uae/) --- Other Marketplace News --- Lazada to launch in Europe Alibaba-owned ecommerce platform Lazada is set to launch in Europe, marking a refreshed internationalisation push from the company. The move follows toughening economic conditions and performance in Southeast Asia, advancing the need to tap overseas markets. In Europe, Lazada will face tough competition from giants like Amazon and Zalando. Lazada’s exact entry strategy is to be confirmed and will be reliant on macroeconomic and market conditions, according to Lazada CEO James Dong. [Read more on DigitalCommerce360](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2022/09/01/alibabas-lazada-to-take-on-amazon-zalando-in-europe-push/) Chinese ecommerce giant Pinduoduo to launch cross-border platform in the United States Pinduoduo, a Chinese ecommerce giant rivalling Alibaba and JD, has announced it will be launching a new cross-border ecommerce platform. The marketplace is set to launch in the United States next month, as part of the company’s larger push into new markets. Pinduoduo found success in China thanks to its rock-bottom price offerings and harnessing of social commerce marketing, emulating strategies similar to fast-fashion giant Shein. [Read more on Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pinduoduo-launch-international-e-commerce-034129263.html) Alibaba launches its biggest B2B sales event, ‘Super September’ China ecommerce giant, Alibaba, has now launched its month-long B2B sales event ‘Super September’. The event provides 40 million buyers and 200,000 suppliers with the ability to connect on the platform, showcasing a ‘virtually unlimited’ number of products. The event hopes to foster new cross-border business relationships to tackle supply chain challenges currently faced by businesses. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/01/alibaba-launches-super-september-b2b-sales-event/) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Klarna’s losses quadruple in first half of 2022 BNPL provider, Klarna, has reported losses of $581 million USD for the first half of 2022. This figure is almost four times larger than a year earlier, where $129 million USD in losses were reported. The company attributes the losses to employee costs, technology investments, and rising credit losses. Klarna’s figure reporting comes amidst worsening economic conditions, fresh legal and regulatory scrutiny, and pressure from Big Tech competitors. [Read more on The Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/483451db-9221-4ca4-83a6-b4ddc6bfcfbb) [Read more on the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/31/klarna-losses-more-than-triple-as-consumer-spending-slows) One fifth of Snap employees to be laid off amidst poor financial performance Social media platform Snap (‘Snapchat’) has announced it will be laying off 20% of its employees and closing out a number of projects following a year of poor financial results.The move will see 1,200 employees globally lose their jobs, saving the company an estimated $500 million USD in costs. Snap is currently valued at $20 billion, an 84% decrease from its valuation of $130 billion last year. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/09/01/snap-to-lay-off-20-of-its-workforce-and-wind-down-a-number-of-projects/)
Aug 30, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 30th August 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon set to shut down Amazon Care Amazon is closing its telehealth service, Amazon Care, which launched in 2019 as a trial program for its headquartered employees. Later the service was rolled out nationwide for employees and other companies. The ecommerce giant has now made the decision to move away from the healthcare space, believing it was not the right long-term solution for its enterprise customers. [Read more on CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/amazon-is-shutting-down-amazon-care-telehealth-service.html) Peloton closes new deal to sell on Amazon Following a recent deal, Amazon customers will soon be able to buy Peloton fitness equipment on the marketplace, marking Peleton’s first move outside a direct-to-consumer model. According to Peloton’s CCO, there are already around half a million searches on Amazon for Peloton products every month, despite having no presence on the marketplace. Some key products include the original Peloton Bike, retailing for $1,445 and Peloton Guide for $295. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/24/peloton-strikes-deal-to-sell-fitness-equipment-on-amazon/) --- Other Marketplace News --- 60% of Malaysians are buying from local sellers on Shopee A recent survey of nearly 3,500 respondents found that nearly half of the shoppers prefer to purchase from local sellers due to shorter delivery times. Other shoppers decide to shop locally due to the quality of the products made in Malaysia and an interest in keeping the economy running. As a result, smaller local merchants have been able to grow their businesses, and shoppers benefit from shorter delivery times, products of high quality and supporting local businesses. [Read more on The Malaysian Reserve](https://themalaysianreserve.com/2022/08/25/around-60-malaysians-are-buying-from-local-sellers-on-shopee/) Flipkart’s social commerce platform Shopsy crosses 100 million users Flipkart launched a social commerce arm, Shopsy, in July of last year, which has now surpassed 100 million users, ahead of its target timeline being the end of 2022. This acquisition of new users has made Shopsy one of the largest platforms of its kind in the country, and is expected to onboard a further 100 million by the end of 2023. The platform is centred around boosting local entrepreneurship and powering ecommerce for consumers across tier 2+ regions where users face challenges around trust and navigation when shopping online. [Read more on Business Standard](https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/flipkart-s-social-commerce-platform-shopsy-hits-100-million-users-1220828006851.html) Meta joins Amazon and Walmart in bid for Indian ecommerce market Amazon mentioned earlier in the year that it would be building a logistics division in-house through its purchase of a 51% stake in Ecom Express, an end-to-end logistics firm, to make ecommerce deliveries more efficient in the country. Walmart operates Flipkart in India and is set to continue its investment in the marketplace. In an effort to compete in the Indian ecommerce market, Meta has partnered with Indian ecommerce company, JioMart, to offer customers a grocery shopping platform within its WhatsApp chat feature. [Read more on Pymnts](https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2022/meta-joins-amazon-walmart-indian-ecommerce-market/) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Ecommerce in Spain worth €57.7 billion in 2021 Spanish ecommerce saw 11.7% growth compared to last year, largely attributed to cross-border sales. In the final quarter of 2021, ecommerce sales in Spain were at €16.9 billion euros, at least 60% of which came from cross-border sales. Transactions from foreign locations to Spain generated a turnover of €1.56 billion in Q4, a growth of 27.7% compared to Q4 a year before. [Read more on Ecommerce News](https://ecommercenews.eu/ecommerce-in-spain-was-worth-e57-7-billion-in-2021/)
Aug 23, 2022

Global Ecommerce Weekly News: 23rd August 2022

Get up to date with this week's ecommerce headlines from around the globe. --- Amazon News --- Amazon to add mental health support to primary-care service Amazon is set to move into mental health therapy with its primary-care division, following its recent acquisition deal of One Medical. The plan is to partner with virtual behavioural therapy service, Ginger, to offer its Amazon Care users with on-demand access to mental health services, licensed therapists and psychiatrists. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/11/amazon-plans-to-add-mental-health-support-to-primary-care-service/) GMB union calls for £15 an hour minimum pay at UK Amazon warehouses Amazon recently offered its warehouse workers a 3% pay rise, which in comparison to the June inflation rate of 9.4% left employees disappointed. Following this, hundreds of Amazon warehouse workers stopped work last week, protesting against the minimal pay increase, seeking a minimum of £15 an hour. Recent protests consisting of employee walkouts and sit-ins aim to get a better offer out of Amazon. [Read more on The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/09/gmb-calls-for-15-an-hour-minimum-pay-at-amazon-warehouses-in-uk) Amazon third-party sellers have received their first-ever holiday fee hike Amazon’s third-party marketplaces account for close to half of the company’s online sales. The company introduced a 5% fuel and inflation charge to its third-party sellers earlier this year, and has now implemented another inflation increase charge. Commencing 14 October, any seller who uses Amazon’s fulfilment service is subject to the price hike, which is set to be an additional 35 cents per item for products sold in the US and Canada. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/17/amazon-third-party-sellers-have-received-their-first-ever-holiday-fee-hike/) Amazon puts a pause on UK grocery shop roll-out as the cost of living increases Amazon has slowed down on its UK roll-out of till-free Amazon Fresh grocery stores following disappointing sales and the rise in cost of living. Allegedly, the company is no longer looking for potential sites to expand and if more stores are opened, they will likely no longer use a till-free system, as consumers become more cautious about spending. [Read more on The Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/21/amazon-pauses-uk-grocery-shop-roll-out-following-disappointing/) --- Other Marketplace News --- Shopee overtakes Alibaba across international markets Shopee has surpassed Alibaba and taken the top spot for sales outside of China. Singapore-based marketplace saw a year-on-year increase of 51.4% at the end of Q2 of this year, while Alibaba saw a 3% drop during the same time period. This can be seen as a promising development for start-ups and their ability to compete with some of the largest ecommerce giants in the market. [Read more on Exchange Wire](https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2022/08/18/shopee-surpasses-alibaba-in-international-sales-amazon-searches-for-entertainment-exec/) H&M reopens its official store to Alibaba’s Tmall ecommerce platform It has been nearly 18 months since Alibaba removed H&M from its Tmall platform, following H&M’s criticism of human rights abuses in Xinjiang. It is estimated that over a million people, predominantly minorities in the area, have been unlawfully detained in camps across the city. Brands including Nike, Adidas, Burberry and Converse were swept up in the controversy, however H&M was one of the first to be targeted for speaking out about the issue. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/16/hm-returns-to-alibabas-tmall-platform-16-months-after-xinjiang-controversy/) Klarna launches new feature allowing UK consumers to view full online order history Buy-now-pay-later company, Klarna, has launched a new feature on its shopping app, which allows UK consumers to view their full online order history, regardless of whether they purchased the product using Klarna. The feature also shows delivery tracking and aids consumers in managing their online purchases more conveniently. [Read more on The Industry](https://www.theindustry.fashion/klarna-launches-new-feature-allowing-uk-consumers-to-view-full-online-order-history/) --- Other Ecommerce News --- Online marketplaces responsible for £280 billion business turnover in the UK Nearly 900,000 UK businesses are currently selling on online marketplaces, generating an estimated £282 billion worth of sales each year. This figure represents 6% of the UK’s annual business turnover, highlighting the notable contribution that marketplaces make to the UK economy, along with the potential for further growth in this area. [Read more on Charged Retail](https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2022/08/09/online-marketplaces-responsible-for-280-billion-business-turnover-in-uk/)