Taco Bout Inflation Reversal for Cinco de Mayo

Pattern Data Science

April 24, 2023

 2 minute read time
Image of a blue sombrero

With inflation easing, consumers may actually pay less to celebrate Cinco de Mayo this year, compared to 2022, depending on what they purchase. 

Why it matters: The latest Consumer Price Index numbers illustrate inflation is slowing giving consumers some much needed breathing room after a long year of steadily rising grocery prices. As Cinco de Mayo approaches, consumers can breathe a sigh of relief that their celebrations won’t stretch their wallets too thin. 

What we’re seeing: Many Cinco de Mayo staples have decreased in price since last year, experiencing inflation reversal. These products include: 

  • Corn -16.86% in price YoY
  • Refried Beans -7.85%
  • Tajin -7.65%
  • Tortilla Chips -6.70%
  • Pinto Beans -5.85%
  • Tomatoes -4.32%
  • Beer -3.98%
  • Black Beans -3.60%
  • Hot Sauce -2.07% 

Yes, but: Total inflation for all Cinco de Mayo products showed an average price increase of 2.65% with some products experiencing higher inflation than others. Here are some of the Cinco de Mayo staples that might cost you extra this year:

  • Tamarind +16.49% in price YoY
  • Tortillas +12.80% 
  • Pico de Gallo +12.59% 
  • Lime +11.02%
  • Salsa +10.46%
  • Margarita Mix +6.76%

Zooming in: We wanted to see how inflation might impact the cost of making one of the most popular Cinco de Mayo dishes of all time: nachos. Using the pricing data for black beans, guacamole, Mexican blend cheese, refried beans, salsa, sour cream, tomatoes, and tortillas, we see an average price increase of just 2.99% since April 2022 for all the necessary nacho ingredients:

  • Tortillas +12.80% 
  • Salsa +10.46%
  • Mexican Blend Cheese +8.14%
  • Sour Cream +6.82%
  • Guacamole +1.47% 
  • Black Beans -3.60% 
  • Tomatoes -4.32% 
  • Refried Beans -7.85% 

The takeaway: While the average cost of all Cinco de Mayo products rose by 2.65%, many staples for the Mexican holiday have witnessed inflation reversal since April 2022. Depending on how consumers plan to celebrate, they may end up paying less for their parties than they did last year. Pattern’s data science team analyzed pricing data on Amazon during every day of 2022 and 2023 so far to understand how economic forces are impacting the cost of celebrating Cinco de Mayo. If you’re interested in using insights like these to power your ecommerce strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out to our team for more information.

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