Pattern’s Predictions for Q4 Sales Peak 2021

Akta Bavalia

October 11, 2021

The fourth quarter is the most lucrative time of the year for most retailers and brands – both online and offline – with a multitude of shopping festivals, deals and promotions leading up to the end of the year. We've asked our ecommerce and marketplace experts around the world for their predictions for Q4 peak sales.

Last year peak sales patterns and trends were quite disrupted in various markets due to most stores being closed, and whilst sales over peak this year may not beat 2020 figures in all markets, we still expect to see a huge uplift in numbers, both in-store and online, with big shopping festivals such as Black Friday (White Friday in the Middle East) and Cyber Monday, as well as Singles’ Day in China being a huge driver.

For brands preparing their trading strategy, Pattern’s General Manager, Germany Torsten Schafer, suggested that brands steer away from using last year’s trading figures as a benchmark for predicting demand this holiday season.

What will the biggest sales peak in 2021?

We asked Pattern’s senior leadership team what their predictions for Q4 sales peak 2021 were, and specifically for the biggest day in terms of revenue. For the Middle East, USA and Australia, Black Friday and Cyber Weekend is expected to see the largest peak in sales, especially online, whilst in China and Europe, Singles’ Day, and December respectively, will see the largest peak.

Pattern’s General Manager for Australia Merline McGregor commented: “We’ve seen an increase in online shoppers in the past 12 months thanks to COVID-19 and store closures - 59% of sessions being new. In addition to this, August 2021 saw our biggest tracked revenue month in our Benchmark Report’s history, with revenue exceeding November 2020 (the previous record holder) by 21%. This was primarily due to New South Wales and Victoria being in lockdown. If this trend continues, we’ll likely continue to see some record-breaking months ahead.”

She added: “Despite most physical retail likely to be back open by this point, I’d assume there will continue to be some hesitation around crowded shopping centres and so consumers will continue to shop online.”

Pattern's USA Director of Marketplaces George Hatch agreed that COVID variants will limit brick-and-mortar sales and some retailers will shift to being closed over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as Walmart is planning to be. However, Black Friday will still likely be the highest revenue day for ecommerce.

George Hatch also predicted that “this holiday season we expect to see deals spread out rather than crammed into a single day. Black Friday and Cyber Monday will surely see the lion's share of discounts and promotions, but shoppers can expect to see deals throughout the Thanksgiving weekend and well into December, and likewise retailers should anticipate a big lift over Turkey 5 – the 5 days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Weekend. We saw this trend in 2020 as the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend saw the highest YoY growth at 113%.”

Meanwhile, General Manager MENA David Quaife predicted the White/Black Friday weekend will also see the most sales in the UAE and Saudi Arabia: “White Friday will be, and has always been, the biggest online selling period. Typically, online retailers should expect to see 3.5x increase in sales in November vs October - this may vary between pureplay and omnichannel retailers.” In the past year or two, the Middle Eastern ecommerce market has experienced sharp growth which is why he expects to see a very strong performance for the big online players this year.

Additionally, the delayed Expo 2020 Dubai will commence in October 2021 and run through to end of March 2022. The footfall to this event will provide a major boost to retail sectors with many visitors expected from outside countries such as Europe and the USA. David stated it would be interesting to see if any of these customers place online orders with Amazon.ae during their stay.

In Latin America, though Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still large festivals, Buen Fin which takes place earlier in November, usually kick starts the shopping season in Mexico. George Hatch advised: “Brands need to be ready by the time Buen Fin rolls around to not miss out on capturing the entirety of Mexico's shopping season. Last year, the event raked in US$11.9 billion in total revenue for both brick-and-mortar and ecommerce.”

In Europe, Torsten predicted: “This year, the biggest days for online sales could be as late as Sunday 19th and Monday 20th December, because of when Christmas falls.” Furthermore, he stated “last year was an exceptionally strong Q4 online because of store closures, and so retailers may not achieve year-on-year sales increases online. However, they should see growth on their 2019 holiday sales – maybe as much as 25% to 50% growth on their sales two years ago if they are running an established online shop and if they have acquired new customers in 2020 who have become more confident buying online.”

In China, Singles’ Day is the biggest 24-hour online shopping festival in the world and is expected to continue being so. Pattern’s General Manager Asia, Arthur Cheung predicted: “Tmall will release the best offers seen throughout the year. However, the sales volume will be so large that it will heavily impact the speed of the fulfilment. It could take a month for an order to arrive to the customer, which is not very common in China where delivery times are usually within 2-3 days.”

And it’s not just in China where we expect to see issues with delays in fulfilment processes. Pattern’s leadership team in Europe, the USA and China expect that retailers and brands will focus their efforts on trying to spread out sales peaks and promotions so their warehouses and delivery infrastructure can cope.

The impact on delivery delays, fulfilment processes and logistics

In Europe, typically Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales have been spread out over the week leading up to the shopping event and the whole week of Cyber Monday - a trend that Torsten predicted will continue. He also added: “This is a combination of retailers trying to attract spend before their competitors and retailers spreading out the peak so that their fulfilment operations can cope with the spike in demand. Last year, Amazon ran Prime Day in mid-October, but it has already taken place this year, so discounting and promotions are likely to be more focused on the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, with retailers trying to maintain full price sales prior to that.”

Whilst in Europe and the Middle East, delivery delays are not expected to be such an issue, there could be real issues in other regions. In the USA, Amazon has been working to improve its logistics capabilities by relying less on UPS and USPS, but George still anticipates that many products will not arrive in time for Christmas if they are bought after early to mid-December.

Similarly in Australia, it has already been advised that consumers can expect lengthy delivery delays leading up to Christmas. Therefore, Merline predicted that the majority of consumers will aim to get most of their Christmas shopping completed by Cyber Weekend, hence why she believes Black Friday will be the strongest day on the 2021 trading calendar.

How retailers can cope with excess stock issues

Lastly, in Australia and the UAE, it is expected that retailers will have lots of stock to discount that they haven’t been able to sell while stores were closed. They will likely try and discount online to get rid of product over the Black/White Friday and Cyber Monday weekend.

David expects to see a very big push from these businesses to clear a lot of that aged inventory in the month of November with deep discounts, which may then result in a big swing to online channels. Merline also mentioned that some retailers who are eager to clear stock will offer significant promotions. However, others in Australia have consistently faced stock shortages and logistics delays during 2021 and will not want to discount stock so close to the Christmas period.

If you are interested in expanding onto international marketplaces in 2022, download our five-step guide which can help determine whether your brand is ready to go international. Contact hello@pattern.com to learn how we can help to accelerate your growth on marketplaces around the world.

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Sept 20, 2022

4 Ecommerce Consultant Must-Haves

Entering the ecommerce landscape is a huge undertaking for any brand—it usually requires a large investment in resources and expertise to really be successful. Any brand can quickly get in over their heads trying to navigate the nuances of SEO, fulfillment and logistics, distribution control, listing optimization, and meeting the numerous other requirements and administrative tasks to show up well on marketplaces. 

Unfortunately, because it’s so easy for third party, gray market, and unauthorized sellers to obtain and sell products online, many brands find themselves pressured to execute an ecommerce plan without the right resources to succeed on marketplaces and their other channels.

So, for brands looking to enter the ecommerce space or improve their current and future performance, it makes sense to partner with an ecommerce consultant.

Pattern’s global presence and proven success with hundreds of brands has allowed us to develop highly effective ecommerce consulting services. We can guide your brand to navigate issues both large and small in marketplaces worldwide. To maximize your ecommerce efforts, you’ll need to understand what an ecommerce consultant does and how to select one who drives the right value for your brand and products. 

What is an Ecommerce Consultant?

An ecommerce consultant is a specialist in the ecommerce space who can give you personalized guidance on how to market your products and grow their presence on digital marketplaces.

An ecommerce consultant should be able to analyze your brand, audience, category, opportunity, and current roadblocks and help you understand how to utilize your resources (or what resources are missing) to be most effective in capturing your opportunities in the ecommerce space.

Not sure how to evaluate a consultant? Here are 4 key attributes to look for as you make your choice.

1. Brand Obsession/Specialization/Passion

At Pattern, we prioritize brand obsession for a reason—we know that a brand-centered mindset makes a crucial difference in the outcomes and results our partners achieve. So in our experience, when you begin your search for an ecommerce consultant, it’s important to look for a partner who is specialized in ecommerce, invested in the product, and passionate about helping brands build and improve their strategies. Typically, this means finding someone that consults exclusively for ecommerce marketplaces, rather than choosing a consultant who offers many different services. 

2. Proven Results

It’s also important to avoid choosing a consulting partner who can’t deliver the right experience for your brand. The best indication of whether your potential consultant can do that is to review their history, data, and results with other brands. Ask if they’ve helped others in your selling category, if they’ve solved specific issues your brand is facing, and why they feel you are a good fit. The key is to leave the conversation feeling confident that you understand your consultants’ capabilities and whether or not they match up with your needs.

3. Wide Range of Marketplace Expertise

It’s best to pick a consultant who knows how to guide a brand onto and through multiple marketplaces worldwide. You’ll want to take a look at your long-term strategy and think about the regions and platforms you’re currently on and where you might want to take your brand in the future. If your consultant is truly great at what they do, they’ll be able to help you perform well enough with your current product roadmap that it’ll be a no-brainer to expand your presence at the right time.

4. Network of Resources

The most effective partnership with an ecommerce consultant will be able to give you both recommendations and point you to solutions for making those changes in your planning, processes, and execution. Your time and money is valuable, so you want to make sure that you’re spending it as efficiently as possible as you follow your consultant’s advice. So, before you commit to an ecommerce consultant, ask about the resources and concrete solutions they typically recommend to the brands they work with.

Achieve Your Ecommerce Goals With Pattern

Finding an ecommerce consultant that checks the boxes can be a difficult task. At Pattern, our entire focus and drive centers around giving brands the tools and resources they need to succeed on domestic and international ecommerce marketplaces. 

With over 100 global ecommerce consultants across 10 global offices, we have the right tools to partner with brands across the world to achieve better ecommerce success. We give specialized advice, then make sure our partners have all the adequate SEO, social media, CRM, Amazon multi-channel fulfillment services, and ecommerce outsourcing services they need.

Interested in ecommerce consulting services? Set up a call here to learn what Pattern can do for your brand on global marketplaces.

Sept 19, 2022

When is Consumer Demand Highest for Non-Alcoholic Beverages?

**Observing Patterns in Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Drinks** Ahead of Sober October, Pattern evaluates when consumer demand is highest for non-alcoholic beverages. Key insights include: * Sober October vs. Dry January — when is demand highest for non-alcoholic drinks? * Non-alcoholic brands in highest demand * Types of non-alcoholic drinks in highest demand * Key takeaways for ecommerce retailers With Sober October fast approaching, our team decided to investigate when consumer demand is highest for non-alcoholic beverages throughout the year. Using search data gathered from U.S. Amazon shoppers from 2019 – 22, we discovered some interesting trends in consumer behavior as it relates to demand for non-alcoholic products. **Sober October vs. Dry January — When is Demand Highest for Non-Alcoholic Drinks?** While [Sober October](https://www.thezeroproof.com/home/what-is-sober-october-and-how-did-it-start) has been a long-held tradition in the U.S. since its introduction by Australian-founded nonprofit organization, Ocsober, in 2010, it appears most U.S. consumers prefer to do their detoxing after the holidays. According to our data, searches for non-alcoholic beverages experience an annual peak in January rather than October: <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beverages in 2019" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-fQqy0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fQqy0/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beverages in 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-qWrkJ" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qWrkJ/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beverages in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-MJ99q" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MJ99q/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> The only year consumer demand increased during Sober October was 2020. This is likely because Sober October was celebrating its tenth year in the U.S. and had a larger than normal marketing push. Following this campaign, however, we can observe a 45% decline in demand during October year over year when comparing 2021 to 2020: <iframe title="YoY Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beverages – 2021 vs 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Bacy6" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bacy6/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> **Non-Alcoholic Brands in Highest Demand** When it comes to non-alcoholic brands in highest demand, consumers have a clear preference. A whopping 42% of all searches for specific non-alcoholic brands in 2021 were for Seedlip. Kin Euphorics held 24% of all search queries while Ritual Zero Proof held 20% during the same year: <iframe title="U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beverage Brands in 2021" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-9OEDj" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9OEDj/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="399"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> When observing the 2021 seasonal change in consumer demand for the three top non-alcoholic brands, we can further see Dry January’s influence on the marketplace. In January 2021, Seedlip saw a 95% increase in consumer demand while in October 2021, the brand saw a 34% decline: <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beverage Brands in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-8TVwt" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8TVwt/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> **Types of Non-Alcoholic Drinks in Highest Demand** Even though non-alcoholic beer and wine brands took up the rear in consumer demand, the opposite is true when looking at searches for general types of non-alcoholic beverages. When looking at consumer demand for non-alcoholic beer, wine, and spirits, searches for non-alcoholic wine took up 39% while non-alcoholic beer took up 35% in 2021: <iframe title="U.S. Consumer Demand for Types of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in 2021" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-GHIc8" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GHIc8/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="255"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> Seasonal demand for non-alcoholic beer, wine, and spirits sees a sharp increase in January. Interestingly, non-alcoholic spirits see increased demand during the springtime. This could be because [Sober Spring](https://alcoholchange.org.uk/help-and-support/managing-your-drinking/sober-spring/what-is-sober-spring:~:text=Sober%20Spring%20was%20launched%20in,very%20happily%20sober%20since%202013.) (a tradition started by Catherine Gray in 2018) occurs from March 20 – June 20 each year: <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beer, Wine &amp;amp; Spirits in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-629mr" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/629mr/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> **Key Takeaways for Non-Alcoholic Brands on Ecommerce** Non-alcoholic drink brands can gain a competitive edge from our data analysis. First, demand for non-alcoholic drinks tends to be highest during Dry January, so it’s important for ecommerce retailers to prepare for increased demand by coordinating effectively across their marketing,fulfillment/logistics, and customer relations departments. Since most consumers prefer non-alcoholic wine and beer to spirits, it’s wise for retailers to consider these preferences when placing orders. **Satisfying consumer demand starts with data. If you’d like to learn more about how our data can help empower your ecommerce strategy, contact us to [request a demo](https://pattern.com/contact-us/) from Pattern today.**
Sept 15, 2022

The Biggest Influences on Consumer Demand for Coffee Products

**What Drives Consumer Demand for Coffee Products?** Pattern analyzes the top influences driving consumer demand for coffee products from 2020 – 22. Key Highlights: * Coffee brands by highest consumer demand * When is consumer demand for coffee brands highest? * Cold brew vs. hot coffee vs. espresso — what do consumers want? * Prime Day and weather drive consumer demand for coffee, cold brew, and espresso * Coffee types in highest demand * Coffee machines in highest demand * When is coffee machine demand highest? * Key takeaways for ecommerce coffee retailers As National Coffee Day approaches on September 29, our team decided to take a closer look at what’s been driving consumer demand for various coffee products from 2020 – 22. While retailers might not expect an increase in consumer demand during National Coffee Day in September, our analysis suggests a strong correlation between higher overall demand for coffee products and Prime Day. With rumors of another Prime Day slated for October 2022, it’s important for ecommerce coffee retailers to prepare for possible increased demand during this time. **Coffee Brands by Highest Consumer Demand** Our team made some surprising discoveries when it came to consumers’ coffee brand preferences. Even though Starbucks, Maxwell House, Dunkin, and Folgers hold the [largest market shares](https://www.statista.com/statistics/451969/market-share-of-ground-coffee-in-the-us-by-leading-brand/:~:text=In%20the%2052%20weeks%20ended,share%20of%20around%2012%20percent.) in the space, Starbucks was the only brand that consistently remained at the top of consumers’ minds from 2020 – 22. Privately owned brands like Black Rifle Coffee, Community Coffee, Café Bustelo, and Death Wish rounded out the top five coffee brands in highest demand during this same period. Here’s a look at the spread of consumer demand among the brands we analyzed: <iframe title="U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands in 2020" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-m0dEf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/m0dEf/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="662"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands in 2021" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-e2uYK" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e2uYK/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="662"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script> <iframe title="U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands in 2022" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-7nT2r" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7nT2r/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="662"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> **When is Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands Highest?** Consumer demand for specific coffee brands tends to be highest at three main points throughout the year: Valentine’s Day, Prime Day, and the period from Thanksgiving – Christmas Day. When observing seasonality trends in both 2020 and 2021, we can see this pattern repeat itself in both years: <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands in 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-DiisL" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DiisL/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Brands in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-NK0oz" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NK0oz/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> **Cold Brew vs. Hot Coffee vs. Espresso — What Do Consumers Want?** Overall, demand for coffee, cold brew, and espresso products has remained fairly consistent over the years. When observing weekly change in demand for each of these products in 2020, 2021, and 2022, we see very little fluctuation except for Prime Day: <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso in 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-5JJ84" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5JJ84/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-goJoP" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/goJoP/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso in 2022" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-NH68I" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NH68I/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> Interestingly, espresso was the only category that experienced a spike in consumer demand. As consumers seek out deals on products with higher price points (i.e. espresso), demand for high-end coffee increases around Prime Day. Compared to the week preceding Prime Day, here’s how demand for espresso products increased from 2020 – 2022: * **2020:** 198% increase during the week of October 11 * **2021:** 169% increase during the week of June 20 * **2022:** 252% increase during the week of July 10 **Prime Day and Weather Drive Consumer Demand for Coffee, Cold Brew & Espresso** Prime Day is the driving force behind increased demand for espresso products. However, there are other noteworthy patterns our team observed that point to what may be influencing demand throughout the year — specifically weather changes. For instance, when comparing seasonality in 2020 to 2021, we can see how demand for cold brew coffee sees an annual increase starting around May and tapering off by the end of September. Conversely, demand for espresso tends to fall during this same period (except for when Prime Day occurs during the summer in 2021). <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso in 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-vM50j" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vM50j/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-84vLh" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/84vLh/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> Despite the cyclical increased demand for cold brew coffee products, however, demand overall for these products appears to be on a downward trend when comparing year over year demand: <iframe title="YoY Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso - 2021 vs. 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Cmkb5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Cmkb5/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="YoY Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee vs. Cold Brew vs. Espresso - 2022 vs. 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-fo1Ak" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fo1Ak/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> **Coffee Types in Highest Demand** The pandemic had little effect on consumer demand for coffee products in terms of brand, boldness, and temperature. However, when it came to specific types of coffee (whole bean, K-cup, ground, instant, etc.), the pandemic was an obvious factor influencing demand. In particular, coffee beans saw the highest increase in demand with a 182% increase over the annual average for 2020 during the week after the pandemic was formally declared: <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Types of Coffee in 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-4AUYN" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4AUYN/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> We further see the pandemic’s influence on consumer demand when observing year over year change in demand from 2020 to 2021 in the chart below: <iframe title="YoY Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Types of Coffee - 2021 vs 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-MCy9G" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MCy9G/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> During the same week the pandemic was declared in 2020, demand for all products in this category fell significantly in 2021. K-cups saw the sharpest decrease at -74% year over year. The pandemic wasn’t the only factor influencing consumer demand in 2020. In the charts below, we see Prime Day is a key factor in determining when demand will be highest across all types of coffee in 2021 and 2022: <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Types of Coffee in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-wy4xl" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wy4xl/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Types of Coffee in 2022" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-rqqdd" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rqqdd/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> Once more, we can see how products with higher price points see increased demand during Prime Day. K-cups and coffee beans saw the highest increase in demand during these periods. When comparing the week preceding Prime Day, here’s how much demand increased across these two product categories: * **K-Cups | 2021:** 74% increase during week of June 20 * **Coffee Beans | 2021:** 31% increase during week of June 20 * **K-Cups | 2022:** 98% increase during week of July 10 * **Coffee Beans | 2022:** 31% increase during week of July 10 **Coffee Machines in the Highest Demand** In every week where Prime Day occurred from 2020 – 22, demand for coffee machines of all types rose significantly. Just like with coffee beans, K-cups, and espresso, coffee machines see a spike in demand during this time because consumers are seeking out deals on products that are normally more expensive: <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Machines in 2020" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-k3bX5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/k3bX5/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Machines in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-rqzGm" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rqzGm/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> <iframe title="Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Machines in 2022" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-iphbp" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iphbp/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> Espresso machines and Keurig machines are in the highest demand during this time while percolators, cold brew coffee makers, and French press machines take up the rear. This is likely due to the fact that espresso machines and Keurig machines have a higher price point than percolators, cold brew coffee makers, and French press machines. **When is Coffee Machines Demand Highest?** Not only can increased demand for coffee machines be observed during Prime Day, but consumers also tend to search more for these products during the holiday season and on Valentine’s Day. Using 2021 as the baseline for “new normal” in terms of seasonality, the chart below illustrates how consumer demand for coffee machines changes in a typical year: <iframe title="Seasonal Change in U.S. Consumer Demand for Coffee Machines in 2021" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-Tg6DG" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Tg6DG/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> As we can see, demand surges around Valentine’s Day with Keurig machines taking the lead in demand. This is likely due to the company’s annual Valentine’s Day sale. From Thanksgiving until Cyber Monday, demand increases again, this time with espresso and Keurig machines leading the way. Consumers are likely searching more for high-end products during this time as they prepare for holiday gifting and try to take advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday savings. **Key Takeaways for Ecommerce Coffee Retailers** This data offers invaluable insights for ecommerce coffee retailers. First, the influence of Prime Day over consumer demand for all coffee products cannot be underestimated. Particularly, products that have a higher price point should be made available to consumers who are searching for such goods in higher volume during Prime Day than at any other time of the year. Along with Prime Day, ecommerce coffee brands should take note of how other holidays and weather change directly impact consumer demand. Thanksgiving, Valentine’s Day, and weather patterns all impact when certain products are in highest demand. By understanding when these changes occur throughout the year, coffee retailers can better coordinate inventory, fulfillment, marketing, and customer service at these critical moments. **Want to use patterns like these to empower your brand throughout the year? [Request a demo ](https://pattern.com/contact-us/)with Pattern to improve your ecommerce strategy today!**