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Inflation Breaks Hearts on Valentine’s Day

Valentine’s Gifts Hit Hard by Rising Prices

No holiday has been spared from inflation so far in 2023, and Valentine’s Day looks to be no exception according to our latest data.

Why it matters: Valentine’s Day 2022 was one of the highest spending years on record for the annual celebration of love. This year is expected to be no different with shoppers predicted to spend $25.9 billion on Valentine’s Day. But might this increased spend have an alternate cause other than naturally increased demand?

What we’re seeing: From LEGO sets to Super Bowl snacks, consumers feel the pinch of inflation with nearly every purchase. Prices of the most popular Valentine’s gifts are no exception. Here’s how prices for popular Valentine’s gifts increase year over year in 2022:

  • Candy +25%
  • Conversation hearts +16%
  • Teddy bears +12%
  • Wine +5%
  • Candles +3%
  • Chocolate +2%

Yes, but: Inflation for these same items has eased slightly when looking at Q1 ’23 compared to Q1 ’22:

  • Chocolate +6.35%
  • Conversation hearts +4.76%
  • Candles +4.41%
  • Candy +4.2%
  • Teddy bears +3.8%
  • Wine +2.37%

Moreover: When looking at inflation from Q4 ‘22 – Q1 ‘23, we see that inflation has further slowed among these items. In some cases, it actually reverses:

  • Teddy bears +4.65%
  • Chocolate +1.39%
  • Candles +0.61%
  • Wine -1.42%
  • Candy -2.15%
  • Conversation hearts -3.8%

The takeaway: While inflation has caused price increases for several popular Valentine’s Day gifts since 2021, year over year data illustrates that inflation is slowing within this product category. Still, consumers should expect to pay higher prices to please their sweethearts this year.

  • Our data science team analyzed consumer demand on Amazon during every day of 2021, 2022, and 2023 to understand how economic forces are impacting consumer prices ahead of Valentine’s Day. If you’re interested in using insights like these to power your ecommerce strategy, contact us to request more information.